With some of the major free agents signed and the draft completed, here’s how I see think in the Eastern Conference.
1. Orlando Magic
2. Washington Wizards
3. Boston Celtics
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Miami Heat
10 Charlotte Bobcats
11. Indiana Pacers
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Milwaukee Bucks
15. New Jersey Nets
1. Orlando Magic- While some are dwelling on the departure of Hedo Turkoglu and Coutney Lee, the Magic have had a stellar off-season. They added Vince Carter. Jameer Nelson will be healthy. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes provide additional depth from the bench. Lastly, Dwight Howard has improved every season, becoming a more complete player. The norm in the NBA is the team with the best big man wins the championship, with Michael Jordan being the aberration rather than the rule. This is Dwight Howard’s year to be the bets big man in the NBA, and the year for the Magic to remain atop the Eastern Conference during the regular season.
2. Washington Wizards. Yes, scream “homer” at me. The Wizards added two solid starter, Mike Miller and Randy Foye. The team is one of the deepest in the NBA. Gilbert Arenas appears healthy, as does Brendan Haywood, who is in a contract year. The Wizards also will benefit form the development of JaVale McGee, whose progress was noted by TEAM USA basketball. Lastly, I think Flip Saunders remains a vastly underrated coach who is exactly what this squad needs. The Wizards won’t scare anybody on defense, but they won’t be a complete sieve, and on offense, they’ll be like the Phoenix Suns before Steve Kerr killed the fun.
3. Boston Celtics- This is a team that is ripe for a disappointing season and possible implosion. Kevin Garnett is coming back from surgery. Rajon Rondo, who kept the Celtics alive in the playoffs, was hammered in the media by the GM Danny Ainge. Adding gasoline to the team chemistry fire, the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace. The biggest problem for the Celtics is that nobody has discovered the fountain of youth.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers- While I think the Celtics made questionable moves, I think the Cavaliers really stunk up the joint this off-season. I have already written about how Shaq is a terrible defender. (Ask Mike Bibby’s agent how good Shaq’s pick and roll defense is. He’ll answer you from the swimming pool of money he earned). They overpaid for Anderson Varejao. Next season, the Cavaliers will have over half of the team’s salaries to Varejao, Shaq, and Z. They added Anthony Parker, but their perimeter depth is still highly questionable.
5. Toronto Raptors- The Raptors had three big additions this off-season. First, Hedo Turkoglu, who they overpaid dramatically, but will provide some leadership on offense and will make a great tantem with Bosh on pick and rolls. Second, Jared Jack was added, who gives a great second ball hander to spell Jose Calederon. Third, they drafted Demarr DeRozen, a prospect with amazing potential. With these additional players, I believe the Raptors will return to upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.
6. Chicago Bulls- They may make a move to add Boozer or David Lee, which might change things a bit, but I like this Bulls team currently. Derrick Rose is entering his 2nd season after a monstrous rookie campaign. Luol Deng will be healthy again. Kirk Hinrch provides stability at a guard off the bench.
7. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks remain a mystery to me. Enough talent to be a serious contender, but that talent never seem to manifest itself. With the improvements to the Wizards and Magic, the Hawks record will decline a bit from the intense divisional play.
8. Detroit Pistons- The “new look” Pistons should be a lot of fun to watch, however, there roster is a bit of a mess. Both of their draft picks are tweeners forwards- not enough bulk to play the 4, not enough perimeter skills to play the 3. Their top two players, Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton, play the same position and serve the same function. While I’ll enjoy watching this Piston team a lot more than past Piston teams, I don’t think they’ll have the same success.
9. Miami Heat- Miami has done nothing this off-season while the other teams in the league have improved. Dwayne Wade is unhappy. Jermaine O’Neal can’t stay healthy. When O’Neal is out, Miami lacks a solid no. 2 scoring option. Last season, they overachieved. I think 9th is a more reasonable position given all the improvements in other teams.
10 Charlotte Bobcats- They were the no. 10 seat last year, ending the season 3-7. They should see some improvement from another year under Larry Brown, but the talent is still lacking. Tyson Chandler is a nice addition but not really an upgrade over Emeka Okafur. This is the same team that finished 10th last season and they have not done anything to keep up with any of the top tier teams.
11. Indiana Pacers- Danny Granger and a bunch of role players. The Pacers are full of players who do their jobs and just their job. There’s not a lot of upside to Roy Hibbert, Josh McRoberts, Travis Diener, or Tyler Hansbrough. This team also has three players from Duke, so I’m surprised as a Maryland alum, I can’t find a reason to put them lower.
12. Philadelphia 76ers- Eddie Jordan is an excellent coach for a rebuilding program. However, the loss of Andre Miller will be felt, since Jru Holiday is not ready to run the point and Louis Williams is a better fit at SG. I can’t see them making any major moves to fix this problem, because several of their players have really odorous contracts. Dalembert has two years and roughly 23 million left on his contract. Elton Brand has roughly four years and 64 million left on his deal.
13. New York Knicks- The Knicks are committed to clearing the mess off their balance sheet. Larry Hughes, Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, Darko Millic, and Chris Duhon, all have expiring contracts. The Knicks face a tricky situation with David Lee and Nate Robinson as restricted free agents. I don’t understand neglecting David Lee, who has played his heart out on losing teams. I would not be surprised to see another team make an aggressive move to land him. Nevertheless, this team isn’t assembled to win basketball games, but to fix a balance sheet. While I love Mike D’Antonni’s system, I don’t see this team reaching the playoffs in the East.
14. Milwaukee Bucks- I love Brandon Jennings. Not simply because he has a great last name, but because he had good summer league performance and seems to have that aggressive swagger that the Bucks never have. However, they let Charlie Villeneauva and Richard Jefferson go this off-season. They may even lose Ramon Sessions too. That’s just too much talent lost.
15. New Jersey Nets- The owner is dumping salary to sell the team. I think they’re getting a good young core, but Courtney Lee is not Vince Carter. This actually could be a blessing in disguise for the Nets. Adding Derrick Favors, projected to be the no. 2 pick overall by Draftexpress.com, would complete an amazing young core. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez is a solid young line-up to develop. Besides dumping their best players, the Nets have also lost his assistant coaches as part of their salary purge. Less coaches plus less experienced players is a recipe for disaster.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Steve Nash's Decision Closes the Door on a Championship Ring
A lot of athletes say the most important thing is to win a championship. Sometimes this is true. Great players like Karl Malone and Gary Payton gave up more lucrative offers to join the Lakers in a quest to win a ring. However, most athletes approach their career the way most people approach a job. They look for the most lucrative opportunity and take it.
Steve Nash has now passed up his best opportunity to win a championship ring by signing an extension with the Suns. Espn is reporting that Nash has agreed to a 2 year extension for 22 million. When he finishes his extension, he’ll be 39. At 39, he most likely won’t be able to win a championship as anything under than a role player. Also, as a 39 year old pg, he’ll be a huge defensive liability. Nash is already regarded as a poor defender. As his speed declines, it’ll be even worse. Nash won’t be able to guard Deron Williams or Chris Paul in their prime, and will struggle with upcoming pgs such as Johnny Flynn, Russell Westbrook, or Jerryd Bayless. Nash may get lucky and join the right team and end up with a championship ring as a role player, but it’s tricky. For every player who is lucky enough to find a championship team, there are two more players who never manage to hook-up with the right situation.
Therefore, Steve Nash will have two more seasons in Phoenix to try to win a championship as the focal point. However, the Suns currently have significantly less talent than the Spurs or Lakers. If somehow they were able to get passed them, they have less talent than Cavaliers, Celtics, Wizards or Magic . The Suns don’t have the cap room either this season, where they have 64 million committed or next season where they have 59 million committed to be a significant player in the free agent market. Additionally, their owner has routinely sold picks and moved players to cut costs, so even if they had space, it’s not clear if they’d spend it. This pattern, especially in light of the Shaq trade, suggest this is not an organization that will win at any cost. Since Nash can’t expect any major help in free agency, his only hope is the current players will develop. However, there’s not that much young talent on the Suns. Based on summer league play, Earl Clark looks like a sold role-player in the future. Robin Lopez seems like an acceptable, but not exceptional option at center. The other younger players, Alando Tucker, Jaredly Dudley, and Channing Frye, all seem like average role-players. The Suns, barring an infusion of top tier draft choice, lack a young core that will develop into a championship team. Acquiring this young core is also an impossibility, because their roster, barring injury, is too good to finish in the bottom of the league. The Suns will most likely lose in the first or second round of the playoffs.
Steve Nash may not have been motivated solely by money in his decision. Phoenix has been very good to him, and he is beloved by the fans. After two MVP season, I could understand staying with the one who brought you. However, at the very least, he won’t win championship in the next two years, and likely, he will never win one. If Nash had chosen not to extend his contract, he could have put some pressure on ownership to improve the team. Now, that Nash is back, the pressure is off and an above average team is the result.
Steve Nash has now passed up his best opportunity to win a championship ring by signing an extension with the Suns. Espn is reporting that Nash has agreed to a 2 year extension for 22 million. When he finishes his extension, he’ll be 39. At 39, he most likely won’t be able to win a championship as anything under than a role player. Also, as a 39 year old pg, he’ll be a huge defensive liability. Nash is already regarded as a poor defender. As his speed declines, it’ll be even worse. Nash won’t be able to guard Deron Williams or Chris Paul in their prime, and will struggle with upcoming pgs such as Johnny Flynn, Russell Westbrook, or Jerryd Bayless. Nash may get lucky and join the right team and end up with a championship ring as a role player, but it’s tricky. For every player who is lucky enough to find a championship team, there are two more players who never manage to hook-up with the right situation.
Therefore, Steve Nash will have two more seasons in Phoenix to try to win a championship as the focal point. However, the Suns currently have significantly less talent than the Spurs or Lakers. If somehow they were able to get passed them, they have less talent than Cavaliers, Celtics, Wizards or Magic . The Suns don’t have the cap room either this season, where they have 64 million committed or next season where they have 59 million committed to be a significant player in the free agent market. Additionally, their owner has routinely sold picks and moved players to cut costs, so even if they had space, it’s not clear if they’d spend it. This pattern, especially in light of the Shaq trade, suggest this is not an organization that will win at any cost. Since Nash can’t expect any major help in free agency, his only hope is the current players will develop. However, there’s not that much young talent on the Suns. Based on summer league play, Earl Clark looks like a sold role-player in the future. Robin Lopez seems like an acceptable, but not exceptional option at center. The other younger players, Alando Tucker, Jaredly Dudley, and Channing Frye, all seem like average role-players. The Suns, barring an infusion of top tier draft choice, lack a young core that will develop into a championship team. Acquiring this young core is also an impossibility, because their roster, barring injury, is too good to finish in the bottom of the league. The Suns will most likely lose in the first or second round of the playoffs.
Steve Nash may not have been motivated solely by money in his decision. Phoenix has been very good to him, and he is beloved by the fans. After two MVP season, I could understand staying with the one who brought you. However, at the very least, he won’t win championship in the next two years, and likely, he will never win one. If Nash had chosen not to extend his contract, he could have put some pressure on ownership to improve the team. Now, that Nash is back, the pressure is off and an above average team is the result.
Monday, July 20, 2009
The Future of the Wizards is JaVale McGee, and It’s a Bright Future
The Wizards have been dependent upon front court players to develop in order for them to transition to the next level in competitive play. By and large, the young players have disappointed. From Kwame Brown to Ethan Thomas, the Wizards have struggled to find a strong back-to-the-basket player. JaVale McGee is the latest prospect. Right now, his size and athleticism are at a premiere level. There are very few 7-foot players who can move with such quickness and grace. However, McGee needs to add strength and defensive awareness. Additionally, he needs to develop a few reliable post moves to compliment his arsenal of dunks. However, it seems like he’s got a chance to do so. His mother is a former WNBA player. Unlike a lot of players, he has a great understanding of the value of off-season conditioning. This season, I think McGee will develop into a regular contributor off-the-bench. Next season, he’ll be a starter. Three seasons from now, I think he’ll have a chance to be a top flight center.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Goodbye Kevin McHale
Kevin McHale finally left the Minnesota Timberwolves. To be clear, Kevin McHale makes Isaiah Thomas look like a genius. As reported by ESPN:
McHale was haunted by several bad contracts given to the likes of Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Mike James; draft-day blunders like Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants and the trade of Brandon Roy for Foye; and an illegal under-the-table deal with Joe Smith that ultimately cost the team three first-round draft picks.
Many of those picks would have gotten an average GM fired. The one that’s always bothered me the most was the illegal deal with Joe Smith. I think it’s one of the reasons Kevin Garnett was never able to win a championship in Minnesota. The Timberwolves would have had the 17th pick in 2001, 23rd pick in 2002, and 29th in 2004. Here’s a few people they could have taken:
Year Available Players
2001 Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas
2002 Nenad Kristic, Roger Mason, and Carlos Boozer,
2004 Anderson Varejao and Chris Duhon
Now, I don’t assume that McHale would have necessarily found any of these players, and 2004 was a weak year in terms of late draft talent. But if any of these players were chosen, Kevin Garnett’s championship ambitions may have come to fruition while he was still in Minnesota. Imagine, however, if McHale had been lucky, and we’d have seen a Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Duhon on a team with Kevin Garnett.
This should also be a lesson to the Suns who can’t sell draft picks fast enough. While there may be a short-term benefit to minimize cap space by eliminating draft picks, they seriously diminish a team’s ability to win a championship in the long-term.
McHale was haunted by several bad contracts given to the likes of Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Mike James; draft-day blunders like Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants and the trade of Brandon Roy for Foye; and an illegal under-the-table deal with Joe Smith that ultimately cost the team three first-round draft picks.
Many of those picks would have gotten an average GM fired. The one that’s always bothered me the most was the illegal deal with Joe Smith. I think it’s one of the reasons Kevin Garnett was never able to win a championship in Minnesota. The Timberwolves would have had the 17th pick in 2001, 23rd pick in 2002, and 29th in 2004. Here’s a few people they could have taken:
Year Available Players
2001 Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas
2002 Nenad Kristic, Roger Mason, and Carlos Boozer,
2004 Anderson Varejao and Chris Duhon
Now, I don’t assume that McHale would have necessarily found any of these players, and 2004 was a weak year in terms of late draft talent. But if any of these players were chosen, Kevin Garnett’s championship ambitions may have come to fruition while he was still in Minnesota. Imagine, however, if McHale had been lucky, and we’d have seen a Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Duhon on a team with Kevin Garnett.
This should also be a lesson to the Suns who can’t sell draft picks fast enough. While there may be a short-term benefit to minimize cap space by eliminating draft picks, they seriously diminish a team’s ability to win a championship in the long-term.
A few thoughts on Draft Night
-I am a Brandon Jennings fan. Not because of his game, since I have not seen much of it, but because he came to Madison Square Garden after he was drafted because he wanted to shake the Commissioner’s hand and have that photo. I understand why he was pulled. Nobody likes being the guy sitting in the room with everybody talking about your decline. It’s embarrassing to the player and agent. Most experts were expecting this to happen to Brandon Jennings. Brandon Jennings, however, came back when he was picked, which shows me that he didn’t want to be robbed of the draft experience. I like somebody who savors important moments in their lives.
-I’m not sure how good this draft class is. Last year’s draft was thought to be terrible, but turned out to be pretty good. Derrick Rose was amazing. Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, and Russell Westbrook also showed future all-star potential. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and JaVale McGee all look like long-term front court starters with the potential to be borderline all-stars. Last year, however, nobody thought any of this was true. In contrast, the 2007 draft has turned out worse than expected. Greg Oden looks like a bust. Mike Conley, Jr., Yi Jianlian, and Acie Law have been giant disappointments. I think the one major difference between this draft, 2007’s, and last year’s is that last year players ended up in places where their playtime and roles were well-tailored to where they were drafted.
-I’m not a huge fan of drafting two players in the top 10 because of salary issues. Assuming they both work out, you still have issues resigning them. The best example of this is Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. It will probably happen be easier with Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, since Green hasn’t developed into a top tier talent. Minnesota had this problem this year. They put themselves in an awful position with the 5th and 6th pick, but there’s no guarantee that Ricky Rubio will be willing to play for them, and the fact that he’ll have to fit with another top tier PG is a disincentive.
-The best teams in the NBA usually have the best GMs. The Spurs, for instance, added Richard Jefferson and picked up DeJuan Blair. The Magic added Vince Carter. Both GMs earned their pay. Houston also bought several 2nd picks who could turn out to be solid reserves: Chase Bundinger, Jermaine Taylor, and Sergio Lull.
-I’m not sure how good this draft class is. Last year’s draft was thought to be terrible, but turned out to be pretty good. Derrick Rose was amazing. Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, and Russell Westbrook also showed future all-star potential. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and JaVale McGee all look like long-term front court starters with the potential to be borderline all-stars. Last year, however, nobody thought any of this was true. In contrast, the 2007 draft has turned out worse than expected. Greg Oden looks like a bust. Mike Conley, Jr., Yi Jianlian, and Acie Law have been giant disappointments. I think the one major difference between this draft, 2007’s, and last year’s is that last year players ended up in places where their playtime and roles were well-tailored to where they were drafted.
-I’m not a huge fan of drafting two players in the top 10 because of salary issues. Assuming they both work out, you still have issues resigning them. The best example of this is Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. It will probably happen be easier with Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, since Green hasn’t developed into a top tier talent. Minnesota had this problem this year. They put themselves in an awful position with the 5th and 6th pick, but there’s no guarantee that Ricky Rubio will be willing to play for them, and the fact that he’ll have to fit with another top tier PG is a disincentive.
-The best teams in the NBA usually have the best GMs. The Spurs, for instance, added Richard Jefferson and picked up DeJuan Blair. The Magic added Vince Carter. Both GMs earned their pay. Houston also bought several 2nd picks who could turn out to be solid reserves: Chase Bundinger, Jermaine Taylor, and Sergio Lull.
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