Colts over Jaguars
Saints over Lions
Cowboys over Buccaneers
Eagles over Carolina
Ravens over Panthers
Texans over Jets
Broncos over Bengals
Vikings over Browns
Skins over Giants
Falcons over Dolphins
Cardinals over 49ers
Green Bay over Chicago
New England over Bills
Chargers over Raiders
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Random Thoughts of the Day
So I was clearly wrong as the ending of the Steelers-Titans game was fantastic. The NFL remains much smarter than me.
- I am smarter, however, than the Minnesota Timberwolves, since I know there needs to be players at positions besides PG. Currently playing PG for the Timberwolves- Antonio Daniels, Ramon Sessions, Chucky Atkins, and Jonny Flynn. None of these players are exceptional perimeter shooters, which makes it hard to play them together.
-I'm somewhat torn about the pontential Oct 1 Refree lockout in the NBA. I'm generally sympathetic to the union. A 10% reduction in the union's salaries seems a bit absurd request and my hunch is that it's a tactic designed to send a message to the player's union. On the other hand, NBA refrees are perhaps the worst refrees of any of the four major sports. They could, however, be worse. My fear is that scab refrees will be even less likely to call a foul on a key player when warranted. Does any scab refree want to be the guy who fouls out Kobe Bryant in a nationally televised game? Or will they call a travel on Lebron James when he takes 3 steps to win a playoff game?
-The Patriots had adopted the same strategy as much brother-in-law in fantasty football leagues. He basically sends a lot of crazy offers to the worst teams in the league and hopes, because they're bad at football, that they might accept or make a poor counteroffer. The Patriots robbed the Raiders in the Randy Moss trade. Now, they're trading Richard Seymour for a first round pick, which I would guess would be in the top 10, possibly the top 5. Seymour's loss will be felt for the Patriots, but the value they'll get for the 5th-10th overal draft pick is more than worth it. The Patriots could even get the no. 1 overall pick next year from the Raiders, which is incredibly scary.
-The Browns were attacked when a story reported that its staff didn't like Crabtree because he seemed like a prima dona. The Browns were right, and the writers who slammed them should say so.
-California should protest the NFL. The current 49ers organization embarrasses its former glory. The Raiders are terrible. Even if they stole the Rams back, they'd have three terrible teams.
- I am smarter, however, than the Minnesota Timberwolves, since I know there needs to be players at positions besides PG. Currently playing PG for the Timberwolves- Antonio Daniels, Ramon Sessions, Chucky Atkins, and Jonny Flynn. None of these players are exceptional perimeter shooters, which makes it hard to play them together.
-I'm somewhat torn about the pontential Oct 1 Refree lockout in the NBA. I'm generally sympathetic to the union. A 10% reduction in the union's salaries seems a bit absurd request and my hunch is that it's a tactic designed to send a message to the player's union. On the other hand, NBA refrees are perhaps the worst refrees of any of the four major sports. They could, however, be worse. My fear is that scab refrees will be even less likely to call a foul on a key player when warranted. Does any scab refree want to be the guy who fouls out Kobe Bryant in a nationally televised game? Or will they call a travel on Lebron James when he takes 3 steps to win a playoff game?
-The Patriots had adopted the same strategy as much brother-in-law in fantasty football leagues. He basically sends a lot of crazy offers to the worst teams in the league and hopes, because they're bad at football, that they might accept or make a poor counteroffer. The Patriots robbed the Raiders in the Randy Moss trade. Now, they're trading Richard Seymour for a first round pick, which I would guess would be in the top 10, possibly the top 5. Seymour's loss will be felt for the Patriots, but the value they'll get for the 5th-10th overal draft pick is more than worth it. The Patriots could even get the no. 1 overall pick next year from the Raiders, which is incredibly scary.
-The Browns were attacked when a story reported that its staff didn't like Crabtree because he seemed like a prima dona. The Browns were right, and the writers who slammed them should say so.
-California should protest the NFL. The current 49ers organization embarrasses its former glory. The Raiders are terrible. Even if they stole the Rams back, they'd have three terrible teams.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Just a Quick Thought on Tonight's NFL game
It's the start of the 2nd quarter and I'm stuck in class so I can't watch the game. However, I have to wonder if the NFL made a mistake opening with Pittsburgh v. Tennessee. These two teams would probably lead to a low scoring game.
Looking at the week one match-ups, I wonder if Eagles-Panther or Chicago-Green Bay would have been a better choice to start the season.
Looking at the week one match-ups, I wonder if Eagles-Panther or Chicago-Green Bay would have been a better choice to start the season.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Western Conference Rankings
1. Lost Angeles Lakers- While I’m skeptical of the Ron Artest signing, I don’t think anybody can match their front-court depth with Odom, Bynum, and Gasol. Having arguably the best player in the NBA doesn’t’ hurt either. The Lakers are the best team in the West.
2. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are the only legitimate challenge to the Lakers. While Denver, Utah, New Orleans and the Hornets all have good teams, all of them lack the talent and experience of the Spurs and Lakers. One of the best things about the Spurs is they seem to make the perfect moves in the off-season. Adding Dejaun Blair and Richard Jefferson for peanuts was amazing. Additionally, Richard Jefferson is an all-star level talent, but has the ego of a role-player. The main concern for the Spurs is injury, given the age of its players, their competition in international play in the off-season, and the teams lengthy playoffs runs.
3.Denver Nuggets- While the Spurs and Lakers improved their team, the Nuggets made no major additions. They’ll benefit from another year with Billups running the show and Carmello Anthony continuing to develop, but this team isn’t in the same echelon as the Lakers and Spurs.
4. Utah Jazz- Boozers back and they wish he was gone. The Jazz had a great amount of talent, but they’ve never shown an ability to get that talent to fully manifest into a championship team.
5. Portland Trailblazers- While Steve Blake did a good job in Portland and Andre Miller is a clear upgrade, the problem in Portland is the coaching staff. Nate McMillan makes this team play slower than it’s comfortable. Andre Miller, like Steve Blake, will struggle with wanting to push the ball more than McMillan is comfortable doing. The Trailblazers will continue to improve, they have too much young talent not to. However, they’re still not in the same league as LA or San Antonio, and they don’t have the talent of either the Nuggets or Jazz. I don’t expect Greg Oden to progress that much. He was dominated in Team USA tryouts by both Javale McGee and Brook Lopez.
6. New Orleans Hornets- Okafur is a better player than Tyson Chandler. However, the Hornets still are suffering from the inexcusable contract they gave Stokakovic. When it expires after the 2011 season, they’ll be able to make some moves. Until then, they’re stuck in a holding pattern. The problem is they’re not holding at a great level.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder- The first pick that probably raises some eyebrows. This is a really good team. Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Green is an extremely talent young line-up. Kevin Durant is emerging a great team leader. They have a great GM who is shaping the team to be a juggernaut, not just a contender.
8 Dallas Mavericks- I don’t understand the Maverick’s off-season. They had an aging team which wasn’t a serious threat to win the NBA championship. They added Shawn Marion, a guy whose numbers have nosedived since he was taken out of the Phoenix Sun’s system. The truth about Marion is that he was great as a PF. He could take advantage of his speed and shooting against clumsier natural PFs. However, when he’s played SF, he’s struggled. The problem is that Dallas already has Dirk Nowitzki, who does everything Shawn Marion does better. Marion will instead play the SF position, where his numbers will be abysmal and his locker room presence will be cancerous. Whoever picked them as Western Champions at ESPN should be shot.
9. Phoenix Suns- Steve Kerr took two seasons to finish destroying the team. The Shaq trade and Terry Porter hire were disasters. Robert Sarver has helped by selling away picks rather than developing any talent. The Phoenix Suns are a tragic story in the NBA. The final act will happen next season, when Amare leaves them, and they fall further into the lottery.
10. Houston Rockets- While the Suns’ wounds are self-inflict, the Rockets have suffered from pure back luck. With Yao out for the whole year, the Rockets lack a viable option to play against the larger front-line teams. I think the skill of the Rocket’s coaching staff combined with the defense intensity of its players will make them a far better team than people are anticipating. With McGrady’s 23 million coming off the books next year, the Rockets are posed to make a quick turnaround with a few solid additions in the off-season.
11. Los Angeles Clippers- While I think the world of Blake Griffin, it should be remember that Lebron James couldn’t get his team into the playoffs during the first season. While Baron Davis has expressed regret for his inability to gel with the current coaching staff, Davis has never been able to stay on any coach‘s good side and their coaching staff alienates players with better temperaments. Eric Gordon will develop and I believe the Clippers will have a great insight-outside punch for the future. However, this team is a combination of two types of players: players whose egos are bigger than their talent amd players whose potential is bigger than the current abilities.
12. Sacramento Kings- Geoff Petrie is a great GM and the slow rebuilding process begins in earnest in Sacramento. While I think Tyreke Evans will develop into a top caliber player, I’m unsure if he’ll ever be a pure PG. Spencer Hawes remains overrated, and not a viable answer at center. I think next year this team will be in the playoff hunt. This season, however, I think they’ll still be terrible.
13. Golden State Warriors- Every year I want to see more Nellie ball, the problem is that Don Nelson’s management style is so self-destructive that his basketball philosophy is punished as a result. While Jamaal Crawford wasn’t a top tier player, he’s better than what they got in return for him. The team is loaded with petite guards. 6’3’’ Acie Law, 5’11 Speedy Claxton, 6’3’’ Monta Ellis, and 6’3 Stephen Curry. The team is also still punished by oversized contracts to Corey Magette and Stephen Jackson so I wouldn‘t expect much change this season. On the plus side, Anthony Morrow and Anthony Randolph are both developing into solid players. If this team can get some salary cap relief, I think they could form the nucleus of a solid team. However, given how devalued its talent is and how odorous the contracts it has on its book, I find it highly unlikely they’ll be any progress in the foreseeable future.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves- While I actually really like their coaching staff, I just think the talent is not there. The front court has a glut of over skilled, but undersized Pfs- Love, Songalia, Gomes. Al Jefferson also would fit better at the PF slot than guarding other Centers, which will be even more apparent as he returns from injury. The addition of Ramon Session is nice, but given how electrifying Johnny Flynn played during the preseason, I don’t really understand the move. The team doesn’t need to win now, why invest the money in Session when Flynn (or Rubio) is your long-term answer at PG? Losing Mike Miller and Randy Foye for a band of misfits from the Wizards and a wasted 5th round pick (at least for this year) is idiomatic of the Timberwolves this whole off-season.
15. Memphis Grizzlies- If you’re wondering why Allen Iverson is hesitant to sign here despite a lack of other offers, the overall talent of this team, combine with the vast inferiority of its management is most likely the reason. Even with Iverson, I’m not sure I move them up.
2. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are the only legitimate challenge to the Lakers. While Denver, Utah, New Orleans and the Hornets all have good teams, all of them lack the talent and experience of the Spurs and Lakers. One of the best things about the Spurs is they seem to make the perfect moves in the off-season. Adding Dejaun Blair and Richard Jefferson for peanuts was amazing. Additionally, Richard Jefferson is an all-star level talent, but has the ego of a role-player. The main concern for the Spurs is injury, given the age of its players, their competition in international play in the off-season, and the teams lengthy playoffs runs.
3.Denver Nuggets- While the Spurs and Lakers improved their team, the Nuggets made no major additions. They’ll benefit from another year with Billups running the show and Carmello Anthony continuing to develop, but this team isn’t in the same echelon as the Lakers and Spurs.
4. Utah Jazz- Boozers back and they wish he was gone. The Jazz had a great amount of talent, but they’ve never shown an ability to get that talent to fully manifest into a championship team.
5. Portland Trailblazers- While Steve Blake did a good job in Portland and Andre Miller is a clear upgrade, the problem in Portland is the coaching staff. Nate McMillan makes this team play slower than it’s comfortable. Andre Miller, like Steve Blake, will struggle with wanting to push the ball more than McMillan is comfortable doing. The Trailblazers will continue to improve, they have too much young talent not to. However, they’re still not in the same league as LA or San Antonio, and they don’t have the talent of either the Nuggets or Jazz. I don’t expect Greg Oden to progress that much. He was dominated in Team USA tryouts by both Javale McGee and Brook Lopez.
6. New Orleans Hornets- Okafur is a better player than Tyson Chandler. However, the Hornets still are suffering from the inexcusable contract they gave Stokakovic. When it expires after the 2011 season, they’ll be able to make some moves. Until then, they’re stuck in a holding pattern. The problem is they’re not holding at a great level.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder- The first pick that probably raises some eyebrows. This is a really good team. Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Green is an extremely talent young line-up. Kevin Durant is emerging a great team leader. They have a great GM who is shaping the team to be a juggernaut, not just a contender.
8 Dallas Mavericks- I don’t understand the Maverick’s off-season. They had an aging team which wasn’t a serious threat to win the NBA championship. They added Shawn Marion, a guy whose numbers have nosedived since he was taken out of the Phoenix Sun’s system. The truth about Marion is that he was great as a PF. He could take advantage of his speed and shooting against clumsier natural PFs. However, when he’s played SF, he’s struggled. The problem is that Dallas already has Dirk Nowitzki, who does everything Shawn Marion does better. Marion will instead play the SF position, where his numbers will be abysmal and his locker room presence will be cancerous. Whoever picked them as Western Champions at ESPN should be shot.
9. Phoenix Suns- Steve Kerr took two seasons to finish destroying the team. The Shaq trade and Terry Porter hire were disasters. Robert Sarver has helped by selling away picks rather than developing any talent. The Phoenix Suns are a tragic story in the NBA. The final act will happen next season, when Amare leaves them, and they fall further into the lottery.
10. Houston Rockets- While the Suns’ wounds are self-inflict, the Rockets have suffered from pure back luck. With Yao out for the whole year, the Rockets lack a viable option to play against the larger front-line teams. I think the skill of the Rocket’s coaching staff combined with the defense intensity of its players will make them a far better team than people are anticipating. With McGrady’s 23 million coming off the books next year, the Rockets are posed to make a quick turnaround with a few solid additions in the off-season.
11. Los Angeles Clippers- While I think the world of Blake Griffin, it should be remember that Lebron James couldn’t get his team into the playoffs during the first season. While Baron Davis has expressed regret for his inability to gel with the current coaching staff, Davis has never been able to stay on any coach‘s good side and their coaching staff alienates players with better temperaments. Eric Gordon will develop and I believe the Clippers will have a great insight-outside punch for the future. However, this team is a combination of two types of players: players whose egos are bigger than their talent amd players whose potential is bigger than the current abilities.
12. Sacramento Kings- Geoff Petrie is a great GM and the slow rebuilding process begins in earnest in Sacramento. While I think Tyreke Evans will develop into a top caliber player, I’m unsure if he’ll ever be a pure PG. Spencer Hawes remains overrated, and not a viable answer at center. I think next year this team will be in the playoff hunt. This season, however, I think they’ll still be terrible.
13. Golden State Warriors- Every year I want to see more Nellie ball, the problem is that Don Nelson’s management style is so self-destructive that his basketball philosophy is punished as a result. While Jamaal Crawford wasn’t a top tier player, he’s better than what they got in return for him. The team is loaded with petite guards. 6’3’’ Acie Law, 5’11 Speedy Claxton, 6’3’’ Monta Ellis, and 6’3 Stephen Curry. The team is also still punished by oversized contracts to Corey Magette and Stephen Jackson so I wouldn‘t expect much change this season. On the plus side, Anthony Morrow and Anthony Randolph are both developing into solid players. If this team can get some salary cap relief, I think they could form the nucleus of a solid team. However, given how devalued its talent is and how odorous the contracts it has on its book, I find it highly unlikely they’ll be any progress in the foreseeable future.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves- While I actually really like their coaching staff, I just think the talent is not there. The front court has a glut of over skilled, but undersized Pfs- Love, Songalia, Gomes. Al Jefferson also would fit better at the PF slot than guarding other Centers, which will be even more apparent as he returns from injury. The addition of Ramon Session is nice, but given how electrifying Johnny Flynn played during the preseason, I don’t really understand the move. The team doesn’t need to win now, why invest the money in Session when Flynn (or Rubio) is your long-term answer at PG? Losing Mike Miller and Randy Foye for a band of misfits from the Wizards and a wasted 5th round pick (at least for this year) is idiomatic of the Timberwolves this whole off-season.
15. Memphis Grizzlies- If you’re wondering why Allen Iverson is hesitant to sign here despite a lack of other offers, the overall talent of this team, combine with the vast inferiority of its management is most likely the reason. Even with Iverson, I’m not sure I move them up.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Brett Favre is a Rorschach Test for Sportswriters
As the Brett Favre mania dies down, at least until the next preseason game, it’s interesting to look at the variety of perspectives that have emerged as a result of Brett Favre’s actions. Here are the top 4 perspectives as I see them:
1. “What about the locker room?” Many of these writers were former role-players. They wonder why Brett Favre gets the star treatment and assume the locker room will resent them as much as they did. They could be write. Several articles have already been written about many of the Viking’s player favor Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.
2. “Who cares”- These are the cynics who write articles about they hate writing articles about Favre. I’m not actually sure who is holding their fingers to the keyboard, but they miserly point out that Favre was a mediocre qb in his final playoff game for the Packers and struggled in the 2nd half of the season with the Jets. He’s an upgrade over the existing qbs on the roster, but he’s probably the 3rd best qb in his division, behind a rising Jay Culter and Aaron Rodgers.
3. “Let him play” fan boy- These writers tend to focus on the stellar career that Brett Favre has had. He’s a gun-slinger, still a kid at heart. These people romanticize the career of Favre and ignore his skill decline, focusing on the iconic, rather than the reality.
4. “How dare he? A lot of older players who didn’t play during the area of free agents fall into this category. How could he do this to the Packers? How could he play for their rival the Vikings? These writers romanticize the rivalry between teams and its impact on players.
All of these positions have some merit. It’s just interesting that a writer’s take can be predicted more by their personal beliefs than by any factual claims about Favre.
1. “What about the locker room?” Many of these writers were former role-players. They wonder why Brett Favre gets the star treatment and assume the locker room will resent them as much as they did. They could be write. Several articles have already been written about many of the Viking’s player favor Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.
2. “Who cares”- These are the cynics who write articles about they hate writing articles about Favre. I’m not actually sure who is holding their fingers to the keyboard, but they miserly point out that Favre was a mediocre qb in his final playoff game for the Packers and struggled in the 2nd half of the season with the Jets. He’s an upgrade over the existing qbs on the roster, but he’s probably the 3rd best qb in his division, behind a rising Jay Culter and Aaron Rodgers.
3. “Let him play” fan boy- These writers tend to focus on the stellar career that Brett Favre has had. He’s a gun-slinger, still a kid at heart. These people romanticize the career of Favre and ignore his skill decline, focusing on the iconic, rather than the reality.
4. “How dare he? A lot of older players who didn’t play during the area of free agents fall into this category. How could he do this to the Packers? How could he play for their rival the Vikings? These writers romanticize the rivalry between teams and its impact on players.
All of these positions have some merit. It’s just interesting that a writer’s take can be predicted more by their personal beliefs than by any factual claims about Favre.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Eastern Conference Rankings
With some of the major free agents signed and the draft completed, here’s how I see think in the Eastern Conference.
1. Orlando Magic
2. Washington Wizards
3. Boston Celtics
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Miami Heat
10 Charlotte Bobcats
11. Indiana Pacers
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Milwaukee Bucks
15. New Jersey Nets
1. Orlando Magic- While some are dwelling on the departure of Hedo Turkoglu and Coutney Lee, the Magic have had a stellar off-season. They added Vince Carter. Jameer Nelson will be healthy. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes provide additional depth from the bench. Lastly, Dwight Howard has improved every season, becoming a more complete player. The norm in the NBA is the team with the best big man wins the championship, with Michael Jordan being the aberration rather than the rule. This is Dwight Howard’s year to be the bets big man in the NBA, and the year for the Magic to remain atop the Eastern Conference during the regular season.
2. Washington Wizards. Yes, scream “homer” at me. The Wizards added two solid starter, Mike Miller and Randy Foye. The team is one of the deepest in the NBA. Gilbert Arenas appears healthy, as does Brendan Haywood, who is in a contract year. The Wizards also will benefit form the development of JaVale McGee, whose progress was noted by TEAM USA basketball. Lastly, I think Flip Saunders remains a vastly underrated coach who is exactly what this squad needs. The Wizards won’t scare anybody on defense, but they won’t be a complete sieve, and on offense, they’ll be like the Phoenix Suns before Steve Kerr killed the fun.
3. Boston Celtics- This is a team that is ripe for a disappointing season and possible implosion. Kevin Garnett is coming back from surgery. Rajon Rondo, who kept the Celtics alive in the playoffs, was hammered in the media by the GM Danny Ainge. Adding gasoline to the team chemistry fire, the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace. The biggest problem for the Celtics is that nobody has discovered the fountain of youth.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers- While I think the Celtics made questionable moves, I think the Cavaliers really stunk up the joint this off-season. I have already written about how Shaq is a terrible defender. (Ask Mike Bibby’s agent how good Shaq’s pick and roll defense is. He’ll answer you from the swimming pool of money he earned). They overpaid for Anderson Varejao. Next season, the Cavaliers will have over half of the team’s salaries to Varejao, Shaq, and Z. They added Anthony Parker, but their perimeter depth is still highly questionable.
5. Toronto Raptors- The Raptors had three big additions this off-season. First, Hedo Turkoglu, who they overpaid dramatically, but will provide some leadership on offense and will make a great tantem with Bosh on pick and rolls. Second, Jared Jack was added, who gives a great second ball hander to spell Jose Calederon. Third, they drafted Demarr DeRozen, a prospect with amazing potential. With these additional players, I believe the Raptors will return to upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.
6. Chicago Bulls- They may make a move to add Boozer or David Lee, which might change things a bit, but I like this Bulls team currently. Derrick Rose is entering his 2nd season after a monstrous rookie campaign. Luol Deng will be healthy again. Kirk Hinrch provides stability at a guard off the bench.
7. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks remain a mystery to me. Enough talent to be a serious contender, but that talent never seem to manifest itself. With the improvements to the Wizards and Magic, the Hawks record will decline a bit from the intense divisional play.
8. Detroit Pistons- The “new look” Pistons should be a lot of fun to watch, however, there roster is a bit of a mess. Both of their draft picks are tweeners forwards- not enough bulk to play the 4, not enough perimeter skills to play the 3. Their top two players, Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton, play the same position and serve the same function. While I’ll enjoy watching this Piston team a lot more than past Piston teams, I don’t think they’ll have the same success.
9. Miami Heat- Miami has done nothing this off-season while the other teams in the league have improved. Dwayne Wade is unhappy. Jermaine O’Neal can’t stay healthy. When O’Neal is out, Miami lacks a solid no. 2 scoring option. Last season, they overachieved. I think 9th is a more reasonable position given all the improvements in other teams.
10 Charlotte Bobcats- They were the no. 10 seat last year, ending the season 3-7. They should see some improvement from another year under Larry Brown, but the talent is still lacking. Tyson Chandler is a nice addition but not really an upgrade over Emeka Okafur. This is the same team that finished 10th last season and they have not done anything to keep up with any of the top tier teams.
11. Indiana Pacers- Danny Granger and a bunch of role players. The Pacers are full of players who do their jobs and just their job. There’s not a lot of upside to Roy Hibbert, Josh McRoberts, Travis Diener, or Tyler Hansbrough. This team also has three players from Duke, so I’m surprised as a Maryland alum, I can’t find a reason to put them lower.
12. Philadelphia 76ers- Eddie Jordan is an excellent coach for a rebuilding program. However, the loss of Andre Miller will be felt, since Jru Holiday is not ready to run the point and Louis Williams is a better fit at SG. I can’t see them making any major moves to fix this problem, because several of their players have really odorous contracts. Dalembert has two years and roughly 23 million left on his contract. Elton Brand has roughly four years and 64 million left on his deal.
13. New York Knicks- The Knicks are committed to clearing the mess off their balance sheet. Larry Hughes, Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, Darko Millic, and Chris Duhon, all have expiring contracts. The Knicks face a tricky situation with David Lee and Nate Robinson as restricted free agents. I don’t understand neglecting David Lee, who has played his heart out on losing teams. I would not be surprised to see another team make an aggressive move to land him. Nevertheless, this team isn’t assembled to win basketball games, but to fix a balance sheet. While I love Mike D’Antonni’s system, I don’t see this team reaching the playoffs in the East.
14. Milwaukee Bucks- I love Brandon Jennings. Not simply because he has a great last name, but because he had good summer league performance and seems to have that aggressive swagger that the Bucks never have. However, they let Charlie Villeneauva and Richard Jefferson go this off-season. They may even lose Ramon Sessions too. That’s just too much talent lost.
15. New Jersey Nets- The owner is dumping salary to sell the team. I think they’re getting a good young core, but Courtney Lee is not Vince Carter. This actually could be a blessing in disguise for the Nets. Adding Derrick Favors, projected to be the no. 2 pick overall by Draftexpress.com, would complete an amazing young core. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez is a solid young line-up to develop. Besides dumping their best players, the Nets have also lost his assistant coaches as part of their salary purge. Less coaches plus less experienced players is a recipe for disaster.
1. Orlando Magic
2. Washington Wizards
3. Boston Celtics
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Miami Heat
10 Charlotte Bobcats
11. Indiana Pacers
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Milwaukee Bucks
15. New Jersey Nets
1. Orlando Magic- While some are dwelling on the departure of Hedo Turkoglu and Coutney Lee, the Magic have had a stellar off-season. They added Vince Carter. Jameer Nelson will be healthy. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes provide additional depth from the bench. Lastly, Dwight Howard has improved every season, becoming a more complete player. The norm in the NBA is the team with the best big man wins the championship, with Michael Jordan being the aberration rather than the rule. This is Dwight Howard’s year to be the bets big man in the NBA, and the year for the Magic to remain atop the Eastern Conference during the regular season.
2. Washington Wizards. Yes, scream “homer” at me. The Wizards added two solid starter, Mike Miller and Randy Foye. The team is one of the deepest in the NBA. Gilbert Arenas appears healthy, as does Brendan Haywood, who is in a contract year. The Wizards also will benefit form the development of JaVale McGee, whose progress was noted by TEAM USA basketball. Lastly, I think Flip Saunders remains a vastly underrated coach who is exactly what this squad needs. The Wizards won’t scare anybody on defense, but they won’t be a complete sieve, and on offense, they’ll be like the Phoenix Suns before Steve Kerr killed the fun.
3. Boston Celtics- This is a team that is ripe for a disappointing season and possible implosion. Kevin Garnett is coming back from surgery. Rajon Rondo, who kept the Celtics alive in the playoffs, was hammered in the media by the GM Danny Ainge. Adding gasoline to the team chemistry fire, the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace. The biggest problem for the Celtics is that nobody has discovered the fountain of youth.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers- While I think the Celtics made questionable moves, I think the Cavaliers really stunk up the joint this off-season. I have already written about how Shaq is a terrible defender. (Ask Mike Bibby’s agent how good Shaq’s pick and roll defense is. He’ll answer you from the swimming pool of money he earned). They overpaid for Anderson Varejao. Next season, the Cavaliers will have over half of the team’s salaries to Varejao, Shaq, and Z. They added Anthony Parker, but their perimeter depth is still highly questionable.
5. Toronto Raptors- The Raptors had three big additions this off-season. First, Hedo Turkoglu, who they overpaid dramatically, but will provide some leadership on offense and will make a great tantem with Bosh on pick and rolls. Second, Jared Jack was added, who gives a great second ball hander to spell Jose Calederon. Third, they drafted Demarr DeRozen, a prospect with amazing potential. With these additional players, I believe the Raptors will return to upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.
6. Chicago Bulls- They may make a move to add Boozer or David Lee, which might change things a bit, but I like this Bulls team currently. Derrick Rose is entering his 2nd season after a monstrous rookie campaign. Luol Deng will be healthy again. Kirk Hinrch provides stability at a guard off the bench.
7. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks remain a mystery to me. Enough talent to be a serious contender, but that talent never seem to manifest itself. With the improvements to the Wizards and Magic, the Hawks record will decline a bit from the intense divisional play.
8. Detroit Pistons- The “new look” Pistons should be a lot of fun to watch, however, there roster is a bit of a mess. Both of their draft picks are tweeners forwards- not enough bulk to play the 4, not enough perimeter skills to play the 3. Their top two players, Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton, play the same position and serve the same function. While I’ll enjoy watching this Piston team a lot more than past Piston teams, I don’t think they’ll have the same success.
9. Miami Heat- Miami has done nothing this off-season while the other teams in the league have improved. Dwayne Wade is unhappy. Jermaine O’Neal can’t stay healthy. When O’Neal is out, Miami lacks a solid no. 2 scoring option. Last season, they overachieved. I think 9th is a more reasonable position given all the improvements in other teams.
10 Charlotte Bobcats- They were the no. 10 seat last year, ending the season 3-7. They should see some improvement from another year under Larry Brown, but the talent is still lacking. Tyson Chandler is a nice addition but not really an upgrade over Emeka Okafur. This is the same team that finished 10th last season and they have not done anything to keep up with any of the top tier teams.
11. Indiana Pacers- Danny Granger and a bunch of role players. The Pacers are full of players who do their jobs and just their job. There’s not a lot of upside to Roy Hibbert, Josh McRoberts, Travis Diener, or Tyler Hansbrough. This team also has three players from Duke, so I’m surprised as a Maryland alum, I can’t find a reason to put them lower.
12. Philadelphia 76ers- Eddie Jordan is an excellent coach for a rebuilding program. However, the loss of Andre Miller will be felt, since Jru Holiday is not ready to run the point and Louis Williams is a better fit at SG. I can’t see them making any major moves to fix this problem, because several of their players have really odorous contracts. Dalembert has two years and roughly 23 million left on his contract. Elton Brand has roughly four years and 64 million left on his deal.
13. New York Knicks- The Knicks are committed to clearing the mess off their balance sheet. Larry Hughes, Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, Darko Millic, and Chris Duhon, all have expiring contracts. The Knicks face a tricky situation with David Lee and Nate Robinson as restricted free agents. I don’t understand neglecting David Lee, who has played his heart out on losing teams. I would not be surprised to see another team make an aggressive move to land him. Nevertheless, this team isn’t assembled to win basketball games, but to fix a balance sheet. While I love Mike D’Antonni’s system, I don’t see this team reaching the playoffs in the East.
14. Milwaukee Bucks- I love Brandon Jennings. Not simply because he has a great last name, but because he had good summer league performance and seems to have that aggressive swagger that the Bucks never have. However, they let Charlie Villeneauva and Richard Jefferson go this off-season. They may even lose Ramon Sessions too. That’s just too much talent lost.
15. New Jersey Nets- The owner is dumping salary to sell the team. I think they’re getting a good young core, but Courtney Lee is not Vince Carter. This actually could be a blessing in disguise for the Nets. Adding Derrick Favors, projected to be the no. 2 pick overall by Draftexpress.com, would complete an amazing young core. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez is a solid young line-up to develop. Besides dumping their best players, the Nets have also lost his assistant coaches as part of their salary purge. Less coaches plus less experienced players is a recipe for disaster.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Steve Nash's Decision Closes the Door on a Championship Ring
A lot of athletes say the most important thing is to win a championship. Sometimes this is true. Great players like Karl Malone and Gary Payton gave up more lucrative offers to join the Lakers in a quest to win a ring. However, most athletes approach their career the way most people approach a job. They look for the most lucrative opportunity and take it.
Steve Nash has now passed up his best opportunity to win a championship ring by signing an extension with the Suns. Espn is reporting that Nash has agreed to a 2 year extension for 22 million. When he finishes his extension, he’ll be 39. At 39, he most likely won’t be able to win a championship as anything under than a role player. Also, as a 39 year old pg, he’ll be a huge defensive liability. Nash is already regarded as a poor defender. As his speed declines, it’ll be even worse. Nash won’t be able to guard Deron Williams or Chris Paul in their prime, and will struggle with upcoming pgs such as Johnny Flynn, Russell Westbrook, or Jerryd Bayless. Nash may get lucky and join the right team and end up with a championship ring as a role player, but it’s tricky. For every player who is lucky enough to find a championship team, there are two more players who never manage to hook-up with the right situation.
Therefore, Steve Nash will have two more seasons in Phoenix to try to win a championship as the focal point. However, the Suns currently have significantly less talent than the Spurs or Lakers. If somehow they were able to get passed them, they have less talent than Cavaliers, Celtics, Wizards or Magic . The Suns don’t have the cap room either this season, where they have 64 million committed or next season where they have 59 million committed to be a significant player in the free agent market. Additionally, their owner has routinely sold picks and moved players to cut costs, so even if they had space, it’s not clear if they’d spend it. This pattern, especially in light of the Shaq trade, suggest this is not an organization that will win at any cost. Since Nash can’t expect any major help in free agency, his only hope is the current players will develop. However, there’s not that much young talent on the Suns. Based on summer league play, Earl Clark looks like a sold role-player in the future. Robin Lopez seems like an acceptable, but not exceptional option at center. The other younger players, Alando Tucker, Jaredly Dudley, and Channing Frye, all seem like average role-players. The Suns, barring an infusion of top tier draft choice, lack a young core that will develop into a championship team. Acquiring this young core is also an impossibility, because their roster, barring injury, is too good to finish in the bottom of the league. The Suns will most likely lose in the first or second round of the playoffs.
Steve Nash may not have been motivated solely by money in his decision. Phoenix has been very good to him, and he is beloved by the fans. After two MVP season, I could understand staying with the one who brought you. However, at the very least, he won’t win championship in the next two years, and likely, he will never win one. If Nash had chosen not to extend his contract, he could have put some pressure on ownership to improve the team. Now, that Nash is back, the pressure is off and an above average team is the result.
Steve Nash has now passed up his best opportunity to win a championship ring by signing an extension with the Suns. Espn is reporting that Nash has agreed to a 2 year extension for 22 million. When he finishes his extension, he’ll be 39. At 39, he most likely won’t be able to win a championship as anything under than a role player. Also, as a 39 year old pg, he’ll be a huge defensive liability. Nash is already regarded as a poor defender. As his speed declines, it’ll be even worse. Nash won’t be able to guard Deron Williams or Chris Paul in their prime, and will struggle with upcoming pgs such as Johnny Flynn, Russell Westbrook, or Jerryd Bayless. Nash may get lucky and join the right team and end up with a championship ring as a role player, but it’s tricky. For every player who is lucky enough to find a championship team, there are two more players who never manage to hook-up with the right situation.
Therefore, Steve Nash will have two more seasons in Phoenix to try to win a championship as the focal point. However, the Suns currently have significantly less talent than the Spurs or Lakers. If somehow they were able to get passed them, they have less talent than Cavaliers, Celtics, Wizards or Magic . The Suns don’t have the cap room either this season, where they have 64 million committed or next season where they have 59 million committed to be a significant player in the free agent market. Additionally, their owner has routinely sold picks and moved players to cut costs, so even if they had space, it’s not clear if they’d spend it. This pattern, especially in light of the Shaq trade, suggest this is not an organization that will win at any cost. Since Nash can’t expect any major help in free agency, his only hope is the current players will develop. However, there’s not that much young talent on the Suns. Based on summer league play, Earl Clark looks like a sold role-player in the future. Robin Lopez seems like an acceptable, but not exceptional option at center. The other younger players, Alando Tucker, Jaredly Dudley, and Channing Frye, all seem like average role-players. The Suns, barring an infusion of top tier draft choice, lack a young core that will develop into a championship team. Acquiring this young core is also an impossibility, because their roster, barring injury, is too good to finish in the bottom of the league. The Suns will most likely lose in the first or second round of the playoffs.
Steve Nash may not have been motivated solely by money in his decision. Phoenix has been very good to him, and he is beloved by the fans. After two MVP season, I could understand staying with the one who brought you. However, at the very least, he won’t win championship in the next two years, and likely, he will never win one. If Nash had chosen not to extend his contract, he could have put some pressure on ownership to improve the team. Now, that Nash is back, the pressure is off and an above average team is the result.
Monday, July 20, 2009
The Future of the Wizards is JaVale McGee, and It’s a Bright Future
The Wizards have been dependent upon front court players to develop in order for them to transition to the next level in competitive play. By and large, the young players have disappointed. From Kwame Brown to Ethan Thomas, the Wizards have struggled to find a strong back-to-the-basket player. JaVale McGee is the latest prospect. Right now, his size and athleticism are at a premiere level. There are very few 7-foot players who can move with such quickness and grace. However, McGee needs to add strength and defensive awareness. Additionally, he needs to develop a few reliable post moves to compliment his arsenal of dunks. However, it seems like he’s got a chance to do so. His mother is a former WNBA player. Unlike a lot of players, he has a great understanding of the value of off-season conditioning. This season, I think McGee will develop into a regular contributor off-the-bench. Next season, he’ll be a starter. Three seasons from now, I think he’ll have a chance to be a top flight center.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Goodbye Kevin McHale
Kevin McHale finally left the Minnesota Timberwolves. To be clear, Kevin McHale makes Isaiah Thomas look like a genius. As reported by ESPN:
McHale was haunted by several bad contracts given to the likes of Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Mike James; draft-day blunders like Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants and the trade of Brandon Roy for Foye; and an illegal under-the-table deal with Joe Smith that ultimately cost the team three first-round draft picks.
Many of those picks would have gotten an average GM fired. The one that’s always bothered me the most was the illegal deal with Joe Smith. I think it’s one of the reasons Kevin Garnett was never able to win a championship in Minnesota. The Timberwolves would have had the 17th pick in 2001, 23rd pick in 2002, and 29th in 2004. Here’s a few people they could have taken:
Year Available Players
2001 Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas
2002 Nenad Kristic, Roger Mason, and Carlos Boozer,
2004 Anderson Varejao and Chris Duhon
Now, I don’t assume that McHale would have necessarily found any of these players, and 2004 was a weak year in terms of late draft talent. But if any of these players were chosen, Kevin Garnett’s championship ambitions may have come to fruition while he was still in Minnesota. Imagine, however, if McHale had been lucky, and we’d have seen a Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Duhon on a team with Kevin Garnett.
This should also be a lesson to the Suns who can’t sell draft picks fast enough. While there may be a short-term benefit to minimize cap space by eliminating draft picks, they seriously diminish a team’s ability to win a championship in the long-term.
McHale was haunted by several bad contracts given to the likes of Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Mike James; draft-day blunders like Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants and the trade of Brandon Roy for Foye; and an illegal under-the-table deal with Joe Smith that ultimately cost the team three first-round draft picks.
Many of those picks would have gotten an average GM fired. The one that’s always bothered me the most was the illegal deal with Joe Smith. I think it’s one of the reasons Kevin Garnett was never able to win a championship in Minnesota. The Timberwolves would have had the 17th pick in 2001, 23rd pick in 2002, and 29th in 2004. Here’s a few people they could have taken:
Year Available Players
2001 Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas
2002 Nenad Kristic, Roger Mason, and Carlos Boozer,
2004 Anderson Varejao and Chris Duhon
Now, I don’t assume that McHale would have necessarily found any of these players, and 2004 was a weak year in terms of late draft talent. But if any of these players were chosen, Kevin Garnett’s championship ambitions may have come to fruition while he was still in Minnesota. Imagine, however, if McHale had been lucky, and we’d have seen a Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Duhon on a team with Kevin Garnett.
This should also be a lesson to the Suns who can’t sell draft picks fast enough. While there may be a short-term benefit to minimize cap space by eliminating draft picks, they seriously diminish a team’s ability to win a championship in the long-term.
A few thoughts on Draft Night
-I am a Brandon Jennings fan. Not because of his game, since I have not seen much of it, but because he came to Madison Square Garden after he was drafted because he wanted to shake the Commissioner’s hand and have that photo. I understand why he was pulled. Nobody likes being the guy sitting in the room with everybody talking about your decline. It’s embarrassing to the player and agent. Most experts were expecting this to happen to Brandon Jennings. Brandon Jennings, however, came back when he was picked, which shows me that he didn’t want to be robbed of the draft experience. I like somebody who savors important moments in their lives.
-I’m not sure how good this draft class is. Last year’s draft was thought to be terrible, but turned out to be pretty good. Derrick Rose was amazing. Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, and Russell Westbrook also showed future all-star potential. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and JaVale McGee all look like long-term front court starters with the potential to be borderline all-stars. Last year, however, nobody thought any of this was true. In contrast, the 2007 draft has turned out worse than expected. Greg Oden looks like a bust. Mike Conley, Jr., Yi Jianlian, and Acie Law have been giant disappointments. I think the one major difference between this draft, 2007’s, and last year’s is that last year players ended up in places where their playtime and roles were well-tailored to where they were drafted.
-I’m not a huge fan of drafting two players in the top 10 because of salary issues. Assuming they both work out, you still have issues resigning them. The best example of this is Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. It will probably happen be easier with Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, since Green hasn’t developed into a top tier talent. Minnesota had this problem this year. They put themselves in an awful position with the 5th and 6th pick, but there’s no guarantee that Ricky Rubio will be willing to play for them, and the fact that he’ll have to fit with another top tier PG is a disincentive.
-The best teams in the NBA usually have the best GMs. The Spurs, for instance, added Richard Jefferson and picked up DeJuan Blair. The Magic added Vince Carter. Both GMs earned their pay. Houston also bought several 2nd picks who could turn out to be solid reserves: Chase Bundinger, Jermaine Taylor, and Sergio Lull.
-I’m not sure how good this draft class is. Last year’s draft was thought to be terrible, but turned out to be pretty good. Derrick Rose was amazing. Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, and Russell Westbrook also showed future all-star potential. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and JaVale McGee all look like long-term front court starters with the potential to be borderline all-stars. Last year, however, nobody thought any of this was true. In contrast, the 2007 draft has turned out worse than expected. Greg Oden looks like a bust. Mike Conley, Jr., Yi Jianlian, and Acie Law have been giant disappointments. I think the one major difference between this draft, 2007’s, and last year’s is that last year players ended up in places where their playtime and roles were well-tailored to where they were drafted.
-I’m not a huge fan of drafting two players in the top 10 because of salary issues. Assuming they both work out, you still have issues resigning them. The best example of this is Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. It will probably happen be easier with Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, since Green hasn’t developed into a top tier talent. Minnesota had this problem this year. They put themselves in an awful position with the 5th and 6th pick, but there’s no guarantee that Ricky Rubio will be willing to play for them, and the fact that he’ll have to fit with another top tier PG is a disincentive.
-The best teams in the NBA usually have the best GMs. The Spurs, for instance, added Richard Jefferson and picked up DeJuan Blair. The Magic added Vince Carter. Both GMs earned their pay. Houston also bought several 2nd picks who could turn out to be solid reserves: Chase Bundinger, Jermaine Taylor, and Sergio Lull.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
NBA trade rumors and suggestions have clear biases
Bad teams tend to be afterthoughts in trade rumors. NBA reporters tend to have an overwhelmingly pro-winning team bias. Last season, and now repeated on Draft Express, is the rumor that the Wizards are going to trade Antawn Jameson to the Cavaliers. Ignoring the on-the-court implication of this deal, Ernie Grunfeld would never make this move. Wizards fans are still smarting over the first Cavaliers-Wizards series, where Lebron James’s uncalled traveling and distracting Gilbert at the free throw line are still wounds that have not healed. The last thing any Wizards fan wants is for Lebron “King” James to be coroneted via a trade for one of our top players. Ernie Grunfeld would lose all credibility with the Wizards fan base, which would make him vulnerable in the event the team struggles. These rumors don’t make any sense.
The truth is that NBA trade rumors tend to involve the lesser team as an afterthought. It can be seen in the trade scenarios between winning and losing teams, and between big market and small market teams. Despite the Knicks not being anywhere close to a championship team with Lebron, everybody writes about him ending up there. Even when the Raptors were playing well, NBA reporters were writing about Chris Bosh’s ultimate destination.
The major point is that when you read trade rumors, look at it from the perspective of the worst team in the trade first. Determine if it makes sense from that perspective, before you waste a lot of time pulling your hair out about it. Unless, of course, it involves the Clippers. Then just order a hair transplant in advance.
The truth is that NBA trade rumors tend to involve the lesser team as an afterthought. It can be seen in the trade scenarios between winning and losing teams, and between big market and small market teams. Despite the Knicks not being anywhere close to a championship team with Lebron, everybody writes about him ending up there. Even when the Raptors were playing well, NBA reporters were writing about Chris Bosh’s ultimate destination.
The major point is that when you read trade rumors, look at it from the perspective of the worst team in the trade first. Determine if it makes sense from that perspective, before you waste a lot of time pulling your hair out about it. Unless, of course, it involves the Clippers. Then just order a hair transplant in advance.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Shaq to the Cavs?
Trade rumors are always fun. With just a few days till the NBA draft, the rumors tend to fly even faster. However, there is one trade rumor I can’t believe would able to be a reality: Shaq going to Cleveland. The trade doesn’t make sense for either the Suns or the Cavaliers.
The trade proposal as reported is Shaqiulle O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavolvic.
First, Shaq would be a terrible fit for the Cavaliers. Can you imagine a Shaq-Z front-line? At first, it sounds pretty good, two giants patrolling the lane. Then you picture them trying to guard the pick-and-roll. Mike Bibby can thank Shaq’s pick-and-roll coverage for nearly doubling his salary. How would the Shaq-Z front court handle Rashard Lewis? Neither of them have the speed to cover him on the perimeter. Skilled Pfs like Rashard Lewis, Kevin Garnett, and Antawn Jameson would run rampant over a Shaq-Z frontline. Teams would run on the Cavaliers constantly – their transition defense would be a complete joke.
Alternatively, the Cavaliers could bench either Z or O’Neal, but that’s incredibly wasteful in Z’s case, and would create a locker room cancer in O’Neal’s case. Defensively, the Cavaliers wouldn’t suffer as much with only one of them on the court at the time. However, there’s no guarantee that they would have a viable alternative at PF. A Shaq trade would almost certainly result in Anderson Varajeo opting out. He’s most likely get a decrease in minutes, and in a contract year, it would hurt his value. Additionally, he’s not thrilled playing in Cleveland, given his contract dispute.
Additionally, Shaq’s presence would have an adverse effect on the best asset the Cavaliers have: Lebron James. First, Shaq’s presence in low post would clog the lanes. Rather than surrounding Lebron with low-post players who could play away from the basket, as the Bulls did with Jordan, the Cavaliers would be doubling the crowd in their lane. Beyond that, however, there is a serious issue of whether Shaq and Lebron would get along. I have no doubt that at first Shaq would hug Lebron with the his bear arms, and declare that he was bringing a championship to Cleveland. However, after the initial honeymoon, when the rough spots happen who would bear the blame? The press would really have three options: Shaq, Lebron, or the supporting cast. After the Cavs last defeat in the playoffs, everybody else took the blame, not Lebron. Although Lebron’s tendency to over-dribble did hurt the Cavaliers, his stellar play deserved the credit for the wins and his teammates deserved the ire for the Cavalier’s defeats. However, if the media scrutiny fell on Shaq – if the Cavaliers struggled – the Big Aristotle would not hesitate to place it back on Lebron. It’d be interesting to see how Lebron responds to being criticized by his teammate. He’s been the King of the Cavs, and anybody who might be a problem for him has been traded – Ricky Davis and Larry Hughes.
It’s also a terrible trade for the Phoenix Suns. Ben Wallace doesn’t add anything to the Suns’ team, because for every points he takes away on defense, he gives up two points on offense. The assumption is that he’ll accept a buy-out because he’s expressed an interest in retiring. Even if Ben Wallace accepts a buy-out, he’ll still count for $14 million against the salary cap, which means he’s almost as prohibitive as O’Neal. Sasha Pavolvic is only guaranteed for $1.5 million next year. Shaq makes $20 million, and if Sasha and Wallace are both cut, they’ll save $5.5 million for next year.
The trade proposal as reported is Shaqiulle O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavolvic.
First, Shaq would be a terrible fit for the Cavaliers. Can you imagine a Shaq-Z front-line? At first, it sounds pretty good, two giants patrolling the lane. Then you picture them trying to guard the pick-and-roll. Mike Bibby can thank Shaq’s pick-and-roll coverage for nearly doubling his salary. How would the Shaq-Z front court handle Rashard Lewis? Neither of them have the speed to cover him on the perimeter. Skilled Pfs like Rashard Lewis, Kevin Garnett, and Antawn Jameson would run rampant over a Shaq-Z frontline. Teams would run on the Cavaliers constantly – their transition defense would be a complete joke.
Alternatively, the Cavaliers could bench either Z or O’Neal, but that’s incredibly wasteful in Z’s case, and would create a locker room cancer in O’Neal’s case. Defensively, the Cavaliers wouldn’t suffer as much with only one of them on the court at the time. However, there’s no guarantee that they would have a viable alternative at PF. A Shaq trade would almost certainly result in Anderson Varajeo opting out. He’s most likely get a decrease in minutes, and in a contract year, it would hurt his value. Additionally, he’s not thrilled playing in Cleveland, given his contract dispute.
Additionally, Shaq’s presence would have an adverse effect on the best asset the Cavaliers have: Lebron James. First, Shaq’s presence in low post would clog the lanes. Rather than surrounding Lebron with low-post players who could play away from the basket, as the Bulls did with Jordan, the Cavaliers would be doubling the crowd in their lane. Beyond that, however, there is a serious issue of whether Shaq and Lebron would get along. I have no doubt that at first Shaq would hug Lebron with the his bear arms, and declare that he was bringing a championship to Cleveland. However, after the initial honeymoon, when the rough spots happen who would bear the blame? The press would really have three options: Shaq, Lebron, or the supporting cast. After the Cavs last defeat in the playoffs, everybody else took the blame, not Lebron. Although Lebron’s tendency to over-dribble did hurt the Cavaliers, his stellar play deserved the credit for the wins and his teammates deserved the ire for the Cavalier’s defeats. However, if the media scrutiny fell on Shaq – if the Cavaliers struggled – the Big Aristotle would not hesitate to place it back on Lebron. It’d be interesting to see how Lebron responds to being criticized by his teammate. He’s been the King of the Cavs, and anybody who might be a problem for him has been traded – Ricky Davis and Larry Hughes.
It’s also a terrible trade for the Phoenix Suns. Ben Wallace doesn’t add anything to the Suns’ team, because for every points he takes away on defense, he gives up two points on offense. The assumption is that he’ll accept a buy-out because he’s expressed an interest in retiring. Even if Ben Wallace accepts a buy-out, he’ll still count for $14 million against the salary cap, which means he’s almost as prohibitive as O’Neal. Sasha Pavolvic is only guaranteed for $1.5 million next year. Shaq makes $20 million, and if Sasha and Wallace are both cut, they’ll save $5.5 million for next year.
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