Well, 21 to be honest. Early Dynasty Rookie Draft

Top 20 Fantasy Draft Picks Rookie Mock Draft

1. 1. Mark Ingraham. RB

2. 2. A.J. Green, WR

3. 3. Andrew Luck. QB

4. 4. DeMarco Murray. RB

5. 5. Julio Jones. WR

6. 6. Cam Newton, QB

7. 7, Daniel Thomas, RB

8. 8, Rylan Boyles, WR

9. 9. Jonathan Baldwin, WR

10. 10. Michael Floyd, WR

11. 11, Jake Locker, QB

12. 12. Jordan Todman, RB

13. 13. Shane Vereen, RB

14. 14. Ryan Mallet, QB

15. 15. Blaine Gabbard, QB

16. 16. Evan Royster, RB

17. 17. Ryan Williams, RB

18. 18. Christian Ponder, QB

19. 19, D.J. Wiliams, TE

20. 20. Kendall Hunter, RB

21. 21. Leonard Hankerson, WR

This seems to be the year of the Quarterback: Luck, Newton, Mallet, Locker, Gabbard, and Ponder will all likely be drafted in the first two rounds. The Wide Receivers are also very strong in this draft. The running back class is shallow in top tier talent, but surprisingly deep with numerous players going in the first three rounds.

Thoughts for Today

The End of the Steroid Era?
One development that is getting a lot of attention is the early season dominance of pitchers in MLB. The most likely explanation is that this is the end of the steroid era in baseball. Baseball reporters, however, are hesitant to call it like it is.

Free Agent Summit
Am I the only one who thinks this is crazy? I think it looks terrible for the league for the league and free agents. NBA “fans” and “reporters” are excited about the possibility of two marquee free agents singing with the same team. Some even put forth scenarios where three stars all agree to take a pay cut to win a championship. The Wade-Lebron-Bosh combo is exceedingly unlikely. Also, what is Joe Johnson doing at this summit? Seriously, he is the Aquaman of the NBA Super Friends.
One of my problem is that competition is excessively frowned upon in our society. I understand that we need to teach people the value of compromise and understanding that being cooperative is often better than being competitive. Sports is not, however, a place where that lesson belongs. It’s important to be competitive in sports. Players have always wanted to win championships; however, past players adopted a “do it on your own” philosophy. Wanting to win, and winning without being part of a loaded team is a good desire. Especially during the prime of a player’s career, he should not play Robin if he has a chance to be Batman.
I could never imagine Bird and Johnson playing together in the NBA during their prime. I watched the documentary on HBO about those two, and even after Johnson and Bird had broken bread together and starred alongside each other in commercial, Bird still want to destroy Johnson. There was nothing wrong with that. There’s a deep friendship that forms in competition. When Magic disclosed that he had AIDS, Larry met an effort to immediately reach out and call him. I do not understand why today’s NBA stars need to team up. It’s absurd. If you want to win a championship, you should do it with a team where you’re the alpha.
The desire to create a super team, preferably in New York, is a result of two things. First is the belief that New York should be the center of the sports universe. This is absurd. All cities with a franchise deserve a chance to win. The second is an overwhelming nostalgia for the Dream Team. The Dream team was amazing. Its coach did not call a single timeout. Its bench was better than most NBA finals team. However, even if Lebron-Bosh-Wade played together, it wouldn’t be a dream team. Even if those players took a salary cap, they would not be able to fill out their team with quality role players. Orlando, Los Angeles, and Boston would still be able to match that team.
The real danger is that small market teams who lose out after the free agent summit will suffer real backlashes from their fans. If Joe Johnson and Lebron James leave Cleveland and Atlanta for New York, what message does that send to Hawks and Cavaliers fans? Thanks for showing up, but when it comes to championships, your time will never come.
The NFL and NHL salary caps have done a lot to improve parity within their league. Champion teams can rise up from anywhere. Small market teams can succeed. The majority of fans are excited every offseason about this being their year. The free agent summit puts that in serious jeopardy for the NBA.

Lebron James-Cleveland Affair Getting Embarrassing
At a certain point, Cleveland has to take back its dignity. More and more, their “courtship” of Lebron James is just embarrassing. The truth is that the Lebron James let the Cavaliers down in the playoffs. His team was just as talented as the Celtics. His struggles caused the team to implode in the playoffs. His elbow was a constant distraction. Nobody wants to say it in Cleveland. (At least, not until he resigns.) Nevertheless, Cleveland fans are going crazy to get him back. Most recently, an Iron Chef promised to cook for him every month if he resigns in Cleveland. Lebron James is the best small forward in the NBA right now. He has a great game. However, Cleveland is not the junior varsity of NBA cities. It has a pretty loyal fan base, a nice arena, and most importantly, it is Lebron’s hometown.
The Cavaliers should have a simple message for Lebron James. We have done everything you have asked us and more. You wanted Jameson; we got him. You wanted Shaq; we got him. You wanted Mike Brown gone; we did it. There is nothing that they have been asked that they have not attempted to make a reality.

Defending Wilbon and Defending Stan Van Gundy (Thought for Different Reasons)

Defending Michael Wilbon

There are many times when I disagree with Michael Wilbon. Nevertheless, Stan Van Gundy was out of line in his criticism of Michael Wilbon. Stan Van Gundy criticized Wilbon for stating that he heard rumbling that Van Gundy would be fired if the Magic lost to the Celtics. First, I think Wilbon probably had the sources to make this claim. He’s covered the NBA for quite some time. Second, if the Magic had been swept, ownership would and probably should at least consider a change in coaching staff. The Magic have one of the highest payrolls. Their starters are all top tier players: Lewis, Howard, Nelson, and Carter. This is a championship team and if they fail to reach the NBA Finals, every possible cause for that failure should be examined, including the head coach.
Stan Van Gundy responded by irresponsibly slamming Wilbon. First, he pointed out that Wilbon was not a player or coach, so he had no idea what he was talking about. Second, he said Wilbon was attacking him for Van Gundy’s refusal to be a guest on PTI. Both of these lines of argument are absurd, and Van Gundy should apologize to Wilbon.
First, just because a person is not a professional athlete does mean they are less apt at covering the sport. The percentage of people who play, coach, or manage professional sports is incredibly small. Unsurprisingly, most people and most reporters are not among them. The idea that this disqualifies them for accurately commenting on the actions of a coach, player, or general manager is absurd. A lot of former players make terrible commentators. There are some commentators who are sufficiently detached in their coverage that they would have benefited from being a player. However, the overwhelming number of top tier reporters and commentators have studied sports with just as much intensity as any player. Additionally, some players have biases based upon their previous role and their position. When you hear Charles Barkerly talk about the NBA, he focuses on the obligations of a star player and on post players in general. Magic Johnson tends to focus on point guards. I imagine if you discussed the success of the Phoenix Suns with Mike Brown and Don Nelson, their answers would be completely different. A lot of players and coaches develop biases about the value of certain aspects of their sport that reporters do not.
Second, the fact that Van Gundy has not been on Wilbon’s show is not the reason he got criticized. His team was on the verge of getting swept. His team looked bad. I have watched PTI. I know that Wilbon has some favorites, and I do not think Van Gundy is among them. Nevertheless, while I can not say for certain what Wilbon’s motive was in reporting that Stan Van Gundy could be fired, given his record as a journalist, I am likely to believe that the proper motives were at least part of the equation.


Defending Stan Van Gundy
Despite blasting Stan Van Gundy for criticizing Michael Wilbon, Orlando’s coach deserves praise for the Magic two game winning streak to stave off elimination. If the Magic win Game 6 and tie the series, the Celtics may very well collapse. It’s still a long shot, nevertheless, Stan Van Gundy’s Orlando Magic look like they could be the first NBA team to come back from 3-0.
If you want to see the difference between a team with mental toughness and a team without one, compare the way the Orlando Magic played when they went down 3-0 with the final game played by the Atlanta Hawks. While I do not blame Mike Woodson completely for the Hawk’s collapse, Joe Johnson displayed a complete lack of leadership, the Hawk’s coaching staff deserves a portion of the blame. Conversely, Stan Van Gundy does deserve a lot of the credit for the success.

Another Set of Random Thoughts

Changing the NBA Draft
The NFL draft kills the NBA draft in ratings. If I had to fix the NBA draft, here’s what I’d do:
1) Hold the draft lottery two days before the draft
2) Expand the draft to three rounds
3) Drop Dick Vitale

Wizards win the NBA Draft
The Wizards have the first overall pick. I am trying to just enjoy the feeling of winning. Nevertheless, I can’t help but focus on the fact that top player in college basketball John Wall plays the same position as Gilbert Arenas. I also remember the train wreck that happened when we selected Kwame Brown.
However, Wall-Arenas could be a fantastic combination, like Thomas-Dumars for the Pistons. The Wizards frontcourt of McGee and Blatche are on the cusps of reaching their full potential, complicated somewhat by the fact that McGee has asthma. The Wizards are small forward away from being a dominant team. There are some quality small forwards who are free agents in 2010. The most likely scenario would be signing Rudy Grady, a restricted free agent for Memphis Grizzlies. He’s not worth a max contract. Combined with Gilbert Arenas, John Wall, and Andray Blatche, however, he could be the missing piece in a dynasty. At least on paper.
I’d actually prefer the Wizard buy another early first round pick and land Wesley Johnson. It’s a pipe dream, but I think our draft win entitles a bit of dreaming.

The latest Cleveland scapegoat
I am amazed at Lebron James’s ability to deflect almost all blame on to other people. Many who disliked Clinton used to refer to him as the Teflon President. Lebron James is the Teflon NBA Star. Mike Brown was fired despite being one of the most recent coaches of the year.
The truth is that I agree with many of the criticism of Mike Brown. He kept games too slow, failing to utilize Lebron James’s talents in the open court effectively. He failed to develop a solid rotation going into this playoff and failed to properly incorporate Antawn Jameson. He also failed to adjust his defense on Rajon Rondo. Nevertheless, Mike Brown’s Cavaliers had the best regular season record for the past two years. He took the team to the NBA Finals in 2007. He has an impressive record as a coach. The Cavalier’s decision to fire him strikes me as overreaction to their playoff failures.
There are two camps when it comes to Lebron James. The first camp sees him as the greatest player ever and does everything to preserve that status. The second camp sees him as an amazing talent, but flawed player who thinks he doesn’t deserve the accolades already placed upon him. I fall firmly into the second camp. Carmelo Anthony deserved the Rookie of the Year honors. Lebron James is not the best player in basketball. Kobe Bryant remains the best. While he’s not a bad team mate, he doesn’t make his team mates better like Kevin Durant and Dwayne Wade. He over dribbles and dominates the offense a bit too much.
However, Lebron James is still a fantastic talent. If firing Mike Brown is the cost of retaining him, it’s a worthwhile trade. If Lebron leaves, the Cavaliers will have compounded their mistake.

NFL Live
I was up late and watching NFL Live. This show is terrible. Herm Edwards’s performance is a mix of a bad half-time speech and the most inane analysis ever. His side-kick Teddy Bruschi makes Herm Edward seem like an expert. That evening their “insightful analysis” was that Bengals were unhappy, but not too unhappy, with Chad Ocho Cinco being on dancing with the stars. Yikes.
At a certain point, my head exploded that evening. The discussion was about how Brad Childress felt using Tavaris Jackson at QB if Brett Favre didn’t return. Herm Edwards aggressively defended the position that Brad Childress was fine using Tavaris Jackson for the season. Really? He was begging last season for Brett Favre to come to Minnesota. He has allowed Favre to skip training camp. It couldn’t be clearer that Brad Childress is desperate to get Brett Favre to return. Herm Edwards is not examining the situation, he’s giving a weird pro-Jackson pep-talk.
It’s a terrible show.

A Few Thoughts

Hire Thibodeau
Teams should really consider Tom Thibodeau as head coach. His current tenure with the Boston Celtics should prove beyond a doubt that he is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA. Against both the Cavaliers and the Heat, his defense has shown remarkable ability to adapt its style. The Celtics also dominated an Orlando Magic team which had given every other team fits.

Character Doesn’t Count with the Redskins
While the Bengals get all the headlines, the Redskins have signed quite a few terrible people. Albert Haynesworth, who is now refusing to play because of the shift to a 3-4 defense, stomped another player on the head before they signed him. The most recent travesty is Darrion Scott. Darrion Scott admitted to placing a bag over his infant’s head. He claims it was to “test him” to see if he could get the bag off. That’s his defense.
A football team can function with terrible people on it. It’s just better to have a team that doesn’t have these issues. The Redskins always look better on paper than they perform. This may be one of the reasons.

My heart says Suns; My head says Lakers.
I would love for the Suns to win a championship. I would love for teams to copy their up and down style of play. I used to joke with friends that if the NBA wanted better ratings, it should clone Don Nelson and make him coach every team. The Suns plays basketball the “right way for fans.”
Nevertheless, the Lakers are the better team. I think they win in 6.

Kobe>Lebron
Comparing the two teams, I believe the Cavaliers have almost as much talent as the Lakers. The Lakers have Artest, Gasol, and Odom to support Kobe. The Cavaliers have Mo Wiliams, Jameson, and Shaq. If I played those three against each other, NBA Jam Style, I’d give the slight edge to the Lakers. The two biggest difference between the two teams: the conduct of their star player and the skill of their head coach.
Given the extent of injuries that Kobe has been managing this season, I think it’s important to point out that Kobe Bryant, right now, is a better player to depend on to win a championship. Lebron’s phantom elbow injury dramatically impacted his game and the whole team. Kobe Bryant has worked through his injuries. He has two bad fingers. Kobe Bryan understand how you have to play to win a championship. Kobe understands pain. Lebron does not.

Breaking News: NBA Refs are still terrible
The NBA is constantly hurt with allegations of games being fixed, star players getting to break the rules, and other things calling into question its integrity. You know who the Mavericks fear to face in the playoffs? Dick Bavetta. While its probably true NBA refs also have biases, it’s also true they’re just terrible.
In game 1 of the Magic-Celtics game, they totally ignored the lane violation that occurred when Jameer Nelson hit his last minute shot after a Vince Carter FT miss. There should have been no basket. Immediately after, Kevin Garnett threw the ball “inbounds” to Ray Allen before the Magic set-up their press. Normally, this is a smart player, since Ray Allen is exactly who you want to take free throws at the end of the game. However, Kevin Garnett was nowhere near behind the line. It’s a turnover.
The truth is that rather than improving the game, the NBA’s desire to have refs swallow the whistle at the end of game makes the game worse. Colleges games come down to free throws. College games come down to turnovers. Fans love it. Switching sports, the NHL has seen a renaissance in playoff interest since it stopped the old rule of ignoring penalties during the playoffs. The NBA should do the same.
What’s the worst that could happen? People will say the same stuff about the NBA they’re saying now!

Mistakes I have made so far blogging

One of the thing that drives me nuts about sportswriters is how they never evaluate their ideas after writing them. Evert year, commentators predict who will win the NBA Championship, who will the Super Bowl, who will be the first pick overall in any draft, etc. While the lion share of sports writing is not making predictions, it does account for a substantial part of it. A lot of reporters will simply make their predictions and then ignore them afterward. Nobody write an “opps“ column. I think that's an absurd practice. Here are my top five failures and why I made them:

Failed Prediction #1 Shaq would not be traded to the Cavs
When I first examined it, It was terrible trade for the Cavaliers and it didn’t make a lot of sense for the Suns. Nevertheless, they made it. The results were not as bad as I had anticipated. The Suns improved their chemistry by getting rid of Shaq. Their frontcourt talent did not decline as much as I anticipated. The arrival of Channing Frye and the improvement of Brooke Lopez ensure a higher level of play from the Suns frontcourt. The Cavaliers also used Shaq on their road to become the best team in the East. The trade wasn’t good, but it wasn’t bad. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers failed, and slow moving Shaq bears at least some of the blame for the decline in the Cavaliers defense. The Suns may also miss his size when they play against the Lakers in the conference finals.
Nevertheless, I assume the trade wouldn’t happen, and it did. The main reason this trade happened was because the General Manager Danny Ferry gave in to the owner and Lebron James who wanted Shaq. The truth is they would have been a lot better with a player like Marcus Camby instead.

Failed Prediction #2 The Wizards finishing 2nd in the East
Sometimes you get too excited about your team‘s moves. That was my vice in selecting the Wizards to finish second in the Eastern Conference. Their rooster looked good. However, the Wizards were not as good as they looked on paper. Javale McGee was still a project, not a solution at the Center position. Randy Foye’s numbers were inflated because of playing in Minnesota, and he struggled adapting to Flip Saunder‘s system. Gilbert Arenas needed more time to get back to playing form. I expected too much from Mike Miller and Antwan Jameson. Jameson and Miller are both in decline. If I have to pick on player to put the blame on, I would say Caron Butler. Butler was disruptive in the locker room. He wanted a new contract. He didn’t make much of an effort to retool his game for Flip Saunders system. I never expected that from Butler who always seemed like the ultimate pro. The Wizards were an embarrassment even before Gilbert’s legal problem.

Failed Prediction #3 The Bucks missing the playoffs
I completely underestimated Scott Skiles as coach. Scott Skiles is the new Larry Brown. Skiles has now turned around the Bulls and the Bucks. His players improve dramatically under his tutelage. For example, Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng have struggled since his departure. Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings both played exceptionally well. I thought Jennings would be good, but I never expected him to be that good that fast. I had them finishing near the bottom in the NBA. They nearly made it to the second round of the playoffs.

Failed Prediction #4 Jameson would not be traded to the Cavaliers
After Gilbert Arenas’s legal trouble and the team’s abysmal record, there was not much left to Cavs-Wizards rivalry. It was not as painful for Wizard fans to let Jameson go. Jameson had not played particularly well. Most Wizards fans realized that team needed to be rebuilt and that required cap room.
The sad thing is that Jameson may end up in an even worse situation. If Lebron James leaves, that team will not be anywhere near a championship for quite a few years. Most likely, Jameson’s window will have completely closed by the team his current contract ends. If he does get a championship, it will be as role-player. Adding insult to injury, the Wizards would be in a dramatically better position to rebuild. Andray Blatache stepped up in Jameson’s absence. Gilbert Arenas will return to form. They have the potential to land John Wall or Evan Turner in the NBA draft.

Failed Prediction #5 Toronto Raptors finishing 5th in the East
This is the most mystifying failure. I still am shocked it happened. Even now when I look at the Raptors, I see a lot of talent. They should have done a lot better this season. Hedo Turkoglu did not perform up to expectations., which I anticipated, but this team should not have failed that miserably. The truth is this team didn’t dedicate itself on the defensive end. There were tied for the worst defense in the East. They had plenty of athletic players who could have played defense. This remains, however, the failed prediction that I still struggle to explain.

Front-loaded Contracts- Rebuilding the Wizards part 2

Most contracts start out with a lower salary per year and move upward the length of the contract. When a team is playing for a top tier championship or when a team expects the salary cap to increase, this is a logical determination. However, when a team is rebuilding and has extra cap room, it make sense to front load a contract. For example, let’s say that the Wizards decide to retain Shaun Livingston for roughly 10 million over 4 years. That’s an average salary of 2.5 million per year. The typical structure for a contract like this would be 2 million, 2.25 million, 2.5 million, and 3.25 million. Instead, the Wizards should massively frontload the contract along the lines of 6 million, 2 million, 1 million, and 1 million. First, by frontloading the contract, the contract becomes dramatically more valuable as it progresses. A player who deserves roughly 2.5 million a year is a steal in the later years of the contract since he’s making far less. This allows a rebuilding team to trade away that contract for more assets as it tries to rebuild. Alternatively, the player can be kept by the rebuilding team, because his frontloaded contract doesn’t cause problems for the team when resigning its rookies in the future. Second, a team which frontloads has more cap room in the future, which means it’s easier to add talent. In the later years, the team who frontloaded a contract can take advantage of its saving later. Any year a team fails to use its entire salary cap is a waste of a space. Teams should maximize their cap each year and pay in advance for as many things in the future as possible. I think some front offices are reluctant to maximize their cap room for a team that isn’t very good. This is an incorrect view of the salary cap dilemma. Instead, teams should realize that by filling up their salary every year, it allows them greater flexibility in the future. For example, several of the current contracts are predicated on the notion that the salary cap was going to expand every year. This was incorrect for this season and likely for next season. Since a team can not know what the salary cap will be, it’s better for them to take a risk adverse position and assume it will be lower in the future.

The only problem with a front loaded contract come into play when a team 1) wants to take on salary during the season 2) the use of team options to give greater control. 3) the danger of a player become dissatisfied if he “blows up” during the later years of a front loaded contract. I’ll address each of these.

One of the arguments against frontloading a contract is that teams want to be able to take advantage of their cap space later in the season. Many teams discover they are not as good as they thought and know want to get under the salary cap. However, this is a relatively rare circumstances. This majority of teams dump their salary earlier, usually at the draft. Also, most teams will hold on to those contracts unless they’re not a playoff team.

Second, a lot of people would argue that the use of team options are preferable to a frontloaded contract. However, these are not mutually exclusive. A contract can be both frontloaded and contain a team option. In fact, the team option is likely to less contentious if it occurs in the later years of a front loaded contract. Nevertheless, it is true that a frontloaded contract.

Third, some people would argue that a player with a frontloaded contract may become dissatisfied if he outperforms his contract. A player in that circumstances will feel that he earned his dues during the year he received a 6 million dollar, and his current salary is not appropriate given his level of play. However, while this is a concern, this could occur with any player who outperforms his contract. Additionally, there is nothing to assume that a player who gains a huge contract at the start of his contract might not develop more loyalty during his initial year.


In totality, most of the objection to frontloaded contracts are either exaggerated in their harms, and the benefits greatly exceed the harm. Teams should seek to maximize their salary cap every season when they are rebuilding in order to not have to waste cap room in years when they’re actually competing.