Nearly a Speck of Athletic Ability

Well, 21 to be honest. Early Dynasty Rookie Draft

2011-01-03T22:58:00.000-08:00

Top 20 Fantasy Draft Picks Rookie Mock Draft

1. 1. Mark Ingraham. RB

2. 2. A.J. Green, WR

3. 3. Andrew Luck. QB

4. 4. DeMarco Murray. RB

5. 5. Julio Jones. WR

6. 6. Cam Newton, QB

7. 7, Daniel Thomas, RB

8. 8, Rylan Boyles, WR

9. 9. Jonathan Baldwin, WR

10. 10. Michael Floyd, WR

11. 11, Jake Locker, QB

12. 12. Jordan Todman, RB

13. 13. Shane Vereen, RB

14. 14. Ryan Mallet, QB

15. 15. Blaine Gabbard, QB

16. 16. Evan Royster, RB

17. 17. Ryan Williams, RB

18. 18. Christian Ponder, QB

19. 19, D.J. Wiliams, TE

20. 20. Kendall Hunter, RB

21. 21. Leonard Hankerson, WR

This seems to be the year of the Quarterback: Luck, Newton, Mallet, Locker, Gabbard, and Ponder will all likely be drafted in the first two rounds. The Wide Receivers are also very strong in this draft. The running back class is shallow in top tier talent, but surprisingly deep with numerous players going in the first three rounds.

Thoughts for Today

2010-06-03T10:31:00.000-07:00

The End of the Steroid Era?
One development that is getting a lot of attention is the early season dominance of pitchers in MLB. The most likely explanation is that this is the end of the steroid era in baseball. Baseball reporters, however, are hesitant to call it like it is.

Free Agent Summit
Am I the only one who thinks this is crazy? I think it looks terrible for the league for the league and free agents. NBA “fans” and “reporters” are excited about the possibility of two marquee free agents singing with the same team. Some even put forth scenarios where three stars all agree to take a pay cut to win a championship. The Wade-Lebron-Bosh combo is exceedingly unlikely. Also, what is Joe Johnson doing at this summit? Seriously, he is the Aquaman of the NBA Super Friends.
One of my problem is that competition is excessively frowned upon in our society. I understand that we need to teach people the value of compromise and understanding that being cooperative is often better than being competitive. Sports is not, however, a place where that lesson belongs. It’s important to be competitive in sports. Players have always wanted to win championships; however, past players adopted a “do it on your own” philosophy. Wanting to win, and winning without being part of a loaded team is a good desire. Especially during the prime of a player’s career, he should not play Robin if he has a chance to be Batman.
I could never imagine Bird and Johnson playing together in the NBA during their prime. I watched the documentary on HBO about those two, and even after Johnson and Bird had broken bread together and starred alongside each other in commercial, Bird still want to destroy Johnson. There was nothing wrong with that. There’s a deep friendship that forms in competition. When Magic disclosed that he had AIDS, Larry met an effort to immediately reach out and call him. I do not understand why today’s NBA stars need to team up. It’s absurd. If you want to win a championship, you should do it with a team where you’re the alpha.
The desire to create a super team, preferably in New York, is a result of two things. First is the belief that New York should be the center of the sports universe. This is absurd. All cities with a franchise deserve a chance to win. The second is an overwhelming nostalgia for the Dream Team. The Dream team was amazing. Its coach did not call a single timeout. Its bench was better than most NBA finals team. However, even if Lebron-Bosh-Wade played together, it wouldn’t be a dream team. Even if those players took a salary cap, they would not be able to fill out their team with quality role players. Orlando, Los Angeles, and Boston would still be able to match that team.
The real danger is that small market teams who lose out after the free agent summit will suffer real backlashes from their fans. If Joe Johnson and Lebron James leave Cleveland and Atlanta for New York, what message does that send to Hawks and Cavaliers fans? Thanks for showing up, but when it comes to championships, your time will never come.
The NFL and NHL salary caps have done a lot to improve parity within their league. Champion teams can rise up from anywhere. Small market teams can succeed. The majority of fans are excited every offseason about this being their year. The free agent summit puts that in serious jeopardy for the NBA.

Lebron James-Cleveland Affair Getting Embarrassing
At a certain point, Cleveland has to take back its dignity. More and more, their “courtship” of Lebron James is just embarrassing. The truth is that the Lebron James let the Cavaliers down in the playoffs. His team was just as talented as the Celtics. His struggles caused the team to implode in the playoffs. His elbow was a constant distraction. Nobody wants to say it in Cleveland. (At least, not until he resigns.) Nevertheless, Cleveland fans are going crazy to get him back. Most recently, an Iron Chef promised to cook for him every month if he resigns in Cleveland. Lebron James is the best small forward in the NBA right now. He has a great game. However, Cleveland is not the junior varsity of NBA cities. It has a pretty loyal fan base, a nice arena, and most importantly, it is Lebron’s hometown.
The Cavaliers should have a simple message for Lebron James. We have done everything you have asked us and more. You wanted Jameson; we got him. You wanted Shaq; we got him. You wanted Mike Brown gone; we did it. There is nothing that they have been asked that they have not attempted to make a reality.

Defending Wilbon and Defending Stan Van Gundy (Thought for Different Reasons)

2010-05-27T17:40:00.001-07:00

Defending Michael Wilbon

There are many times when I disagree with Michael Wilbon. Nevertheless, Stan Van Gundy was out of line in his criticism of Michael Wilbon. Stan Van Gundy criticized Wilbon for stating that he heard rumbling that Van Gundy would be fired if the Magic lost to the Celtics. First, I think Wilbon probably had the sources to make this claim. He’s covered the NBA for quite some time. Second, if the Magic had been swept, ownership would and probably should at least consider a change in coaching staff. The Magic have one of the highest payrolls. Their starters are all top tier players: Lewis, Howard, Nelson, and Carter. This is a championship team and if they fail to reach the NBA Finals, every possible cause for that failure should be examined, including the head coach.
Stan Van Gundy responded by irresponsibly slamming Wilbon. First, he pointed out that Wilbon was not a player or coach, so he had no idea what he was talking about. Second, he said Wilbon was attacking him for Van Gundy’s refusal to be a guest on PTI. Both of these lines of argument are absurd, and Van Gundy should apologize to Wilbon.
First, just because a person is not a professional athlete does mean they are less apt at covering the sport. The percentage of people who play, coach, or manage professional sports is incredibly small. Unsurprisingly, most people and most reporters are not among them. The idea that this disqualifies them for accurately commenting on the actions of a coach, player, or general manager is absurd. A lot of former players make terrible commentators. There are some commentators who are sufficiently detached in their coverage that they would have benefited from being a player. However, the overwhelming number of top tier reporters and commentators have studied sports with just as much intensity as any player. Additionally, some players have biases based upon their previous role and their position. When you hear Charles Barkerly talk about the NBA, he focuses on the obligations of a star player and on post players in general. Magic Johnson tends to focus on point guards. I imagine if you discussed the success of the Phoenix Suns with Mike Brown and Don Nelson, their answers would be completely different. A lot of players and coaches develop biases about the value of certain aspects of their sport that reporters do not.
Second, the fact that Van Gundy has not been on Wilbon’s show is not the reason he got criticized. His team was on the verge of getting swept. His team looked bad. I have watched PTI. I know that Wilbon has some favorites, and I do not think Van Gundy is among them. Nevertheless, while I can not say for certain what Wilbon’s motive was in reporting that Stan Van Gundy could be fired, given his record as a journalist, I am likely to believe that the proper motives were at least part of the equation.

Defending Stan Van Gundy
Despite blasting Stan Van Gundy for criticizing Michael Wilbon, Orlando’s coach deserves praise for the Magic two game winning streak to stave off elimination. If the Magic win Game 6 and tie the series, the Celtics may very well collapse. It’s still a long shot, nevertheless, Stan Van Gundy’s Orlando Magic look like they could be the first NBA team to come back from 3-0.
If you want to see the difference between a team with mental toughness and a team without one, compare the way the Orlando Magic played when they went down 3-0 with the final game played by the Atlanta Hawks. While I do not blame Mike Woodson completely for the Hawk’s collapse, Joe Johnson displayed a complete lack of leadership, the Hawk’s coaching staff deserves a portion of the blame. Conversely, Stan Van Gundy does deserve a lot of the credit for the success.

Another Set of Random Thoughts

2010-05-26T13:32:00.000-07:00

Changing the NBA Draft
The NFL draft kills the NBA draft in ratings. If I had to fix the NBA draft, here’s what I’d do:
1) Hold the draft lottery two days before the draft
2) Expand the draft to three rounds
3) Drop Dick Vitale

Wizards win the NBA Draft
The Wizards have the first overall pick. I am trying to just enjoy the feeling of winning. Nevertheless, I can’t help but focus on the fact that top player in college basketball John Wall plays the same position as Gilbert Arenas. I also remember the train wreck that happened when we selected Kwame Brown.
However, Wall-Arenas could be a fantastic combination, like Thomas-Dumars for the Pistons. The Wizards frontcourt of McGee and Blatche are on the cusps of reaching their full potential, complicated somewhat by the fact that McGee has asthma. The Wizards are small forward away from being a dominant team. There are some quality small forwards who are free agents in 2010. The most likely scenario would be signing Rudy Grady, a restricted free agent for Memphis Grizzlies. He’s not worth a max contract. Combined with Gilbert Arenas, John Wall, and Andray Blatche, however, he could be the missing piece in a dynasty. At least on paper.
I’d actually prefer the Wizard buy another early first round pick and land Wesley Johnson. It’s a pipe dream, but I think our draft win entitles a bit of dreaming.

The latest Cleveland scapegoat
I am amazed at Lebron James’s ability to deflect almost all blame on to other people. Many who disliked Clinton used to refer to him as the Teflon President. Lebron James is the Teflon NBA Star. Mike Brown was fired despite being one of the most recent coaches of the year.
The truth is that I agree with many of the criticism of Mike Brown. He kept games too slow, failing to utilize Lebron James’s talents in the open court effectively. He failed to develop a solid rotation going into this playoff and failed to properly incorporate Antawn Jameson. He also failed to adjust his defense on Rajon Rondo. Nevertheless, Mike Brown’s Cavaliers had the best regular season record for the past two years. He took the team to the NBA Finals in 2007. He has an impressive record as a coach. The Cavalier’s decision to fire him strikes me as overreaction to their playoff failures.
There are two camps when it comes to Lebron James. The first camp sees him as the greatest player ever and does everything to preserve that status. The second camp sees him as an amazing talent, but flawed player who thinks he doesn’t deserve the accolades already placed upon him. I fall firmly into the second camp. Carmelo Anthony deserved the Rookie of the Year honors. Lebron James is not the best player in basketball. Kobe Bryant remains the best. While he’s not a bad team mate, he doesn’t make his team mates better like Kevin Durant and Dwayne Wade. He over dribbles and dominates the offense a bit too much.
However, Lebron James is still a fantastic talent. If firing Mike Brown is the cost of retaining him, it’s a worthwhile trade. If Lebron leaves, the Cavaliers will have compounded their mistake.

NFL Live
I was up late and watching NFL Live. This show is terrible. Herm Edwards’s performance is a mix of a bad half-time speech and the most inane analysis ever. His side-kick Teddy Bruschi makes Herm Edward seem like an expert. That evening their “insightful analysis” was that Bengals were unhappy, but not too unhappy, with Chad Ocho Cinco being on dancing with the stars. Yikes.
At a certain point, my head exploded that evening. The discussion was about how Brad Childress felt using Tavaris Jackson at QB if Brett Favre didn’t return. Herm Edwards aggressively defended the position that Brad Childress was fine using Tavaris Jackson for the season. Really? He was begging last season for Brett Favre to come to Minnesota. He has allowed Favre to skip training camp. It couldn’t be clearer that Brad Childress is desperate to get Brett Favre to return. Herm Edwards is not examining the situation, he’s giving a weird pro-Jackson pep-talk.
It’s a terrible show.

A Few Thoughts

2010-05-17T20:30:00.000-07:00

Hire Thibodeau
Teams should really consider Tom Thibodeau as head coach. His current tenure with the Boston Celtics should prove beyond a doubt that he is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA. Against both the Cavaliers and the Heat, his defense has shown remarkable ability to adapt its style. The Celtics also dominated an Orlando Magic team which had given every other team fits.

Character Doesn’t Count with the Redskins
While the Bengals get all the headlines, the Redskins have signed quite a few terrible people. Albert Haynesworth, who is now refusing to play because of the shift to a 3-4 defense, stomped another player on the head before they signed him. The most recent travesty is Darrion Scott. Darrion Scott admitted to placing a bag over his infant’s head. He claims it was to “test him” to see if he could get the bag off. That’s his defense.
A football team can function with terrible people on it. It’s just better to have a team that doesn’t have these issues. The Redskins always look better on paper than they perform. This may be one of the reasons.

My heart says Suns; My head says Lakers.
I would love for the Suns to win a championship. I would love for teams to copy their up and down style of play. I used to joke with friends that if the NBA wanted better ratings, it should clone Don Nelson and make him coach every team. The Suns plays basketball the “right way for fans.”
Nevertheless, the Lakers are the better team. I think they win in 6.

Kobe>Lebron
Comparing the two teams, I believe the Cavaliers have almost as much talent as the Lakers. The Lakers have Artest, Gasol, and Odom to support Kobe. The Cavaliers have Mo Wiliams, Jameson, and Shaq. If I played those three against each other, NBA Jam Style, I’d give the slight edge to the Lakers. The two biggest difference between the two teams: the conduct of their star player and the skill of their head coach.
Given the extent of injuries that Kobe has been managing this season, I think it’s important to point out that Kobe Bryant, right now, is a better player to depend on to win a championship. Lebron’s phantom elbow injury dramatically impacted his game and the whole team. Kobe Bryant has worked through his injuries. He has two bad fingers. Kobe Bryan understand how you have to play to win a championship. Kobe understands pain. Lebron does not.

Breaking News: NBA Refs are still terrible
The NBA is constantly hurt with allegations of games being fixed, star players getting to break the rules, and other things calling into question its integrity. You know who the Mavericks fear to face in the playoffs? Dick Bavetta. While its probably true NBA refs also have biases, it’s also true they’re just terrible.
In game 1 of the Magic-Celtics game, they totally ignored the lane violation that occurred when Jameer Nelson hit his last minute shot after a Vince Carter FT miss. There should have been no basket. Immediately after, Kevin Garnett threw the ball “inbounds” to Ray Allen before the Magic set-up their press. Normally, this is a smart player, since Ray Allen is exactly who you want to take free throws at the end of the game. However, Kevin Garnett was nowhere near behind the line. It’s a turnover.
The truth is that rather than improving the game, the NBA’s desire to have refs swallow the whistle at the end of game makes the game worse. Colleges games come down to free throws. College games come down to turnovers. Fans love it. Switching sports, the NHL has seen a renaissance in playoff interest since it stopped the old rule of ignoring penalties during the playoffs. The NBA should do the same.
What’s the worst that could happen? People will say the same stuff about the NBA they’re saying now!

Mistakes I have made so far blogging

2010-05-15T20:02:00.001-07:00

One of the thing that drives me nuts about sportswriters is how they never evaluate their ideas after writing them. Evert year, commentators predict who will win the NBA Championship, who will the Super Bowl, who will be the first pick overall in any draft, etc. While the lion share of sports writing is not making predictions, it does account for a substantial part of it. A lot of reporters will simply make their predictions and then ignore them afterward. Nobody write an “opps“ column. I think that's an absurd practice. Here are my top five failures and why I made them:

Failed Prediction #1 Shaq would not be traded to the Cavs
When I first examined it, It was terrible trade for the Cavaliers and it didn’t make a lot of sense for the Suns. Nevertheless, they made it. The results were not as bad as I had anticipated. The Suns improved their chemistry by getting rid of Shaq. Their frontcourt talent did not decline as much as I anticipated. The arrival of Channing Frye and the improvement of Brooke Lopez ensure a higher level of play from the Suns frontcourt. The Cavaliers also used Shaq on their road to become the best team in the East. The trade wasn’t good, but it wasn’t bad. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers failed, and slow moving Shaq bears at least some of the blame for the decline in the Cavaliers defense. The Suns may also miss his size when they play against the Lakers in the conference finals.
Nevertheless, I assume the trade wouldn’t happen, and it did. The main reason this trade happened was because the General Manager Danny Ferry gave in to the owner and Lebron James who wanted Shaq. The truth is they would have been a lot better with a player like Marcus Camby instead.

Failed Prediction #2 The Wizards finishing 2nd in the East
Sometimes you get too excited about your team‘s moves. That was my vice in selecting the Wizards to finish second in the Eastern Conference. Their rooster looked good. However, the Wizards were not as good as they looked on paper. Javale McGee was still a project, not a solution at the Center position. Randy Foye’s numbers were inflated because of playing in Minnesota, and he struggled adapting to Flip Saunder‘s system. Gilbert Arenas needed more time to get back to playing form. I expected too much from Mike Miller and Antwan Jameson. Jameson and Miller are both in decline. If I have to pick on player to put the blame on, I would say Caron Butler. Butler was disruptive in the locker room. He wanted a new contract. He didn’t make much of an effort to retool his game for Flip Saunders system. I never expected that from Butler who always seemed like the ultimate pro. The Wizards were an embarrassment even before Gilbert’s legal problem.

Failed Prediction #3 The Bucks missing the playoffs
I completely underestimated Scott Skiles as coach. Scott Skiles is the new Larry Brown. Skiles has now turned around the Bulls and the Bucks. His players improve dramatically under his tutelage. For example, Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng have struggled since his departure. Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings both played exceptionally well. I thought Jennings would be good, but I never expected him to be that good that fast. I had them finishing near the bottom in the NBA. They nearly made it to the second round of the playoffs.

Failed Prediction #4 Jameson would not be traded to the Cavaliers
After Gilbert Arenas’s legal trouble and the team’s abysmal record, there was not much left to Cavs-Wizards rivalry. It was not as painful for Wizard fans to let Jameson go. Jameson had not played particularly well. Most Wizards fans realized that team needed to be rebuilt and that required cap room.
The sad thing is that Jameson may end up in an even worse situation. If Lebron James leaves, that team will not be anywhere near a championship for quite a few years. Most likely, Jameson’s window will have completely closed by the team his current contract ends. If he does get a championship, it will be as role-player. Adding insult to injury, the Wizards would be in a dramatically better position to rebuild. Andray Blatache stepped up in Jameson’s absence. Gilbert Arenas will return to form. They have the potential to land John Wall or Evan Turner in the NBA draft.

Failed Prediction #5 Toronto Raptors finishing 5th in the East
This is the most mystifying failure. I still am shocked it happened. Even now when I look at the Raptors, I see a lot of talent. They should have done a lot better this season. Hedo Turkoglu did not perform up to expectations., which I anticipated, but this team should not have failed that miserably. The truth is this team didn’t dedicate itself on the defensive end. There were tied for the worst defense in the East. They had plenty of athletic players who could have played defense. This remains, however, the failed prediction that I still struggle to explain.

Front-loaded Contracts- Rebuilding the Wizards part 2

2010-04-12T08:23:00.001-07:00

Most contracts start out with a lower salary per year and move upward the length of the contract. When a team is playing for a top tier championship or when a team expects the salary cap to increase, this is a logical determination. However, when a team is rebuilding and has extra cap room, it make sense to front load a contract. For example, let’s say that the Wizards decide to retain Shaun Livingston for roughly 10 million over 4 years. That’s an average salary of 2.5 million per year. The typical structure for a contract like this would be 2 million, 2.25 million, 2.5 million, and 3.25 million. Instead, the Wizards should massively frontload the contract along the lines of 6 million, 2 million, 1 million, and 1 million. First, by frontloading the contract, the contract becomes dramatically more valuable as it progresses. A player who deserves roughly 2.5 million a year is a steal in the later years of the contract since he’s making far less. This allows a rebuilding team to trade away that contract for more assets as it tries to rebuild. Alternatively, the player can be kept by the rebuilding team, because his frontloaded contract doesn’t cause problems for the team when resigning its rookies in the future. Second, a team which frontloads has more cap room in the future, which means it’s easier to add talent. In the later years, the team who frontloaded a contract can take advantage of its saving later. Any year a team fails to use its entire salary cap is a waste of a space. Teams should maximize their cap each year and pay in advance for as many things in the future as possible. I think some front offices are reluctant to maximize their cap room for a team that isn’t very good. This is an incorrect view of the salary cap dilemma. Instead, teams should realize that by filling up their salary every year, it allows them greater flexibility in the future. For example, several of the current contracts are predicated on the notion that the salary cap was going to expand every year. This was incorrect for this season and likely for next season. Since a team can not know what the salary cap will be, it’s better for them to take a risk adverse position and assume it will be lower in the future.

The only problem with a front loaded contract come into play when a team 1) wants to take on salary during the season 2) the use of team options to give greater control. 3) the danger of a player become dissatisfied if he “blows up” during the later years of a front loaded contract. I’ll address each of these.

One of the arguments against frontloading a contract is that teams want to be able to take advantage of their cap space later in the season. Many teams discover they are not as good as they thought and know want to get under the salary cap. However, this is a relatively rare circumstances. This majority of teams dump their salary earlier, usually at the draft. Also, most teams will hold on to those contracts unless they’re not a playoff team.

Second, a lot of people would argue that the use of team options are preferable to a frontloaded contract. However, these are not mutually exclusive. A contract can be both frontloaded and contain a team option. In fact, the team option is likely to less contentious if it occurs in the later years of a front loaded contract. Nevertheless, it is true that a frontloaded contract.

Third, some people would argue that a player with a frontloaded contract may become dissatisfied if he outperforms his contract. A player in that circumstances will feel that he earned his dues during the year he received a 6 million dollar, and his current salary is not appropriate given his level of play. However, while this is a concern, this could occur with any player who outperforms his contract. Additionally, there is nothing to assume that a player who gains a huge contract at the start of his contract might not develop more loyalty during his initial year.

In totality, most of the objection to frontloaded contracts are either exaggerated in their harms, and the benefits greatly exceed the harm. Teams should seek to maximize their salary cap every season when they are rebuilding in order to not have to waste cap room in years when they’re actually competing.

Rebuilding the Wizards- Part 1: Trash for Treasure

2010-04-09T17:53:00.000-07:00

With a lot of cap room next season, some people are discussing the Wizards offering a max contract to one of the premiere free agents. I think that would be a mistake. Several players who may generate max contracts next season, while top players, are not worth that amount of money. Given the Wizards prior problems and smaller media market, it’s unlikely that say, Dwayne Wade is selecting Washington over Chicago, Miami, or New York. Therefore, the Wizards, if they sign a player to a max contract are likely to sign a player who is not worth it. Given these restrictions, I think the Wizards should take a different approach: Be a contract dumping grounds.

There are several teams who are looking to create cap space for this current crop of free agents. Many of these teams are a contract or two away from being able to offer a max or two max contracts. By taking their draft picks as well as their bad contracts, the Wizards will create a more stable long term talent pool.

Here are some “good” bad contracts, which the Wizards could take.

1. Predraq Stojakovic, 15.3 million, expiring contract
Why we’d take it? Stojakovic can still hit an outside shot. He’s not durable, but he’s not a terrible asset for the team. He’d basically fill the role Mike Miller has this season.
What they’d make the deal? The New Orleans Hornets have 73 million in committed salaries for next season. The luxury tax will be around 65 million, so this gets them under that amount.
Possible Draftees for the Wizards: The Hornets are projected to have the 12 pick in the draft. Players who should be available include Xavier Henry, Donatas Motiejunas, and Patrick Patterson.

2. Andrei Kirelenko- 17.8 million next year, expiring contract
Why we’d take it? The Jazz are in a great position because they have New York’s first round pick this season. A.K-47 is a still a good defender. Alongside Blatanche, he’d give the Wizards great height in the front-court. (6’9’’ AK, 6’11” Blantanche, and 7’0 McGee).
Why they’d make this deal? Clearly this would put the Jazz in a great position to resign Carlos Boozer or perhaps sign Chris Bosh instead. Alternatively, they’d be able to offer a maximum contract to Joe Johnson, and play Millsap at the PF instead of Boozer. Their starting line-up would be Williams-Johnson-Miles-Milsap-Okur. A few crafty signings of aging veterans could net the Jazz a return to the finals for the first time since the days of Malone.
Possible Draftees from this deal for the Wizards: The pick from New York i projected to be the 9th selection. This could give the Wizards such players as Wesley Johnson, Greg Monroe, and Jan Vesely.

3. Erik Dampier 13 million, expiring contract
Why we’d take it? Besides the fact that we seem to really enjoy trading with the Mavs, Dampier is a solid center, but not worth his 13 million contract. The Mavs would need to purchase a first round pick to make it work, however, Mark Cuban likes to spend money. It might make more sense for us to just buy the pick from another team, given the large size of the contract. The other benefit for us would be the trade exception this would generate.
Why they’d make this deal? They’d like to resign Brendan Hayword. Dirk also can opt out this season. They’re also horribly over the luxury tax next season.
Possible Draftees from this deal for the Wizards: Impossible to project since the Mavs would need to purchase the draft pick.

4. Kirk Hinrich, 9 million 2010, 8 million 2011
Why we’d take it? When the Bulls agreed to give the Bucks the right to swap picks, this deal became a lot less enticing. However, Kirk Hinrich still has some game left in him. He’s got good range and court awareness. He also is a dedicated, though declining defender. The problem with his contract is its two year length. However, given the amount of cap space we have, we can afford to a hold a bad contract.
Why’d they make this deal? Chicago is trying to clear enough room to lure Chris Bosh or Dwayne Wade to Chicago to play alongside Derrick Rose. This would create a devastating two-some and a top tier team in the East.
Possible Draftees from this deal for the Wizards: Given the swap with the Bucs, this pick will probably be around 18. Based upon draft express, the following players would be available.: Hassan Whiteside, Larry Sanders, James Anderson, and Gordon Hayward. If the Bucks decline to exercise this option, the pick would probably be around 15. This would leave players like Damion James, Xavier Henry, and Stanley Robinson.

Week 1 Football Predictions

2009-09-13T09:09:00.001-07:00

Colts over Jaguars
Saints over Lions
Cowboys over Buccaneers
Eagles over Carolina
Ravens over Panthers
Texans over Jets
Broncos over Bengals
Vikings over Browns
Skins over Giants
Falcons over Dolphins
Cardinals over 49ers
Green Bay over Chicago
New England over Bills
Chargers over Raiders

Random Thoughts of the Day

2009-09-12T08:52:00.000-07:00

So I was clearly wrong as the ending of the Steelers-Titans game was fantastic. The NFL remains much smarter than me.

- I am smarter, however, than the Minnesota Timberwolves, since I know there needs to be players at positions besides PG. Currently playing PG for the Timberwolves- Antonio Daniels, Ramon Sessions, Chucky Atkins, and Jonny Flynn. None of these players are exceptional perimeter shooters, which makes it hard to play them together.

-I'm somewhat torn about the pontential Oct 1 Refree lockout in the NBA. I'm generally sympathetic to the union. A 10% reduction in the union's salaries seems a bit absurd request and my hunch is that it's a tactic designed to send a message to the player's union. On the other hand, NBA refrees are perhaps the worst refrees of any of the four major sports. They could, however, be worse. My fear is that scab refrees will be even less likely to call a foul on a key player when warranted. Does any scab refree want to be the guy who fouls out Kobe Bryant in a nationally televised game? Or will they call a travel on Lebron James when he takes 3 steps to win a playoff game?

-The Patriots had adopted the same strategy as much brother-in-law in fantasty football leagues. He basically sends a lot of crazy offers to the worst teams in the league and hopes, because they're bad at football, that they might accept or make a poor counteroffer. The Patriots robbed the Raiders in the Randy Moss trade. Now, they're trading Richard Seymour for a first round pick, which I would guess would be in the top 10, possibly the top 5. Seymour's loss will be felt for the Patriots, but the value they'll get for the 5th-10th overal draft pick is more than worth it. The Patriots could even get the no. 1 overall pick next year from the Raiders, which is incredibly scary.

-The Browns were attacked when a story reported that its staff didn't like Crabtree because he seemed like a prima dona. The Browns were right, and the writers who slammed them should say so.

-California should protest the NFL. The current 49ers organization embarrasses its former glory. The Raiders are terrible. Even if they stole the Rams back, they'd have three terrible teams.

Just a Quick Thought on Tonight's NFL game

2009-09-10T18:28:00.000-07:00

It's the start of the 2nd quarter and I'm stuck in class so I can't watch the game. However, I have to wonder if the NFL made a mistake opening with Pittsburgh v. Tennessee. These two teams would probably lead to a low scoring game.

Looking at the week one match-ups, I wonder if Eagles-Panther or Chicago-Green Bay would have been a better choice to start the season.

Western Conference Rankings

2009-09-06T12:37:00.001-07:00

1. Lost Angeles Lakers- While I’m skeptical of the Ron Artest signing, I don’t think anybody can match their front-court depth with Odom, Bynum, and Gasol. Having arguably the best player in the NBA doesn’t’ hurt either. The Lakers are the best team in the West.
2. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are the only legitimate challenge to the Lakers. While Denver, Utah, New Orleans and the Hornets all have good teams, all of them lack the talent and experience of the Spurs and Lakers. One of the best things about the Spurs is they seem to make the perfect moves in the off-season. Adding Dejaun Blair and Richard Jefferson for peanuts was amazing. Additionally, Richard Jefferson is an all-star level talent, but has the ego of a role-player. The main concern for the Spurs is injury, given the age of its players, their competition in international play in the off-season, and the teams lengthy playoffs runs.
3.Denver Nuggets- While the Spurs and Lakers improved their team, the Nuggets made no major additions. They’ll benefit from another year with Billups running the show and Carmello Anthony continuing to develop, but this team isn’t in the same echelon as the Lakers and Spurs.
4. Utah Jazz- Boozers back and they wish he was gone. The Jazz had a great amount of talent, but they’ve never shown an ability to get that talent to fully manifest into a championship team.
5. Portland Trailblazers- While Steve Blake did a good job in Portland and Andre Miller is a clear upgrade, the problem in Portland is the coaching staff. Nate McMillan makes this team play slower than it’s comfortable. Andre Miller, like Steve Blake, will struggle with wanting to push the ball more than McMillan is comfortable doing. The Trailblazers will continue to improve, they have too much young talent not to. However, they’re still not in the same league as LA or San Antonio, and they don’t have the talent of either the Nuggets or Jazz. I don’t expect Greg Oden to progress that much. He was dominated in Team USA tryouts by both Javale McGee and Brook Lopez.
6. New Orleans Hornets- Okafur is a better player than Tyson Chandler. However, the Hornets still are suffering from the inexcusable contract they gave Stokakovic. When it expires after the 2011 season, they’ll be able to make some moves. Until then, they’re stuck in a holding pattern. The problem is they’re not holding at a great level.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder- The first pick that probably raises some eyebrows. This is a really good team. Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Green is an extremely talent young line-up. Kevin Durant is emerging a great team leader. They have a great GM who is shaping the team to be a juggernaut, not just a contender.
8 Dallas Mavericks- I don’t understand the Maverick’s off-season. They had an aging team which wasn’t a serious threat to win the NBA championship. They added Shawn Marion, a guy whose numbers have nosedived since he was taken out of the Phoenix Sun’s system. The truth about Marion is that he was great as a PF. He could take advantage of his speed and shooting against clumsier natural PFs. However, when he’s played SF, he’s struggled. The problem is that Dallas already has Dirk Nowitzki, who does everything Shawn Marion does better. Marion will instead play the SF position, where his numbers will be abysmal and his locker room presence will be cancerous. Whoever picked them as Western Champions at ESPN should be shot.
9. Phoenix Suns- Steve Kerr took two seasons to finish destroying the team. The Shaq trade and Terry Porter hire were disasters. Robert Sarver has helped by selling away picks rather than developing any talent. The Phoenix Suns are a tragic story in the NBA. The final act will happen next season, when Amare leaves them, and they fall further into the lottery.
10. Houston Rockets- While the Suns’ wounds are self-inflict, the Rockets have suffered from pure back luck. With Yao out for the whole year, the Rockets lack a viable option to play against the larger front-line teams. I think the skill of the Rocket’s coaching staff combined with the defense intensity of its players will make them a far better team than people are anticipating. With McGrady’s 23 million coming off the books next year, the Rockets are posed to make a quick turnaround with a few solid additions in the off-season.
11. Los Angeles Clippers- While I think the world of Blake Griffin, it should be remember that Lebron James couldn’t get his team into the playoffs during the first season. While Baron Davis has expressed regret for his inability to gel with the current coaching staff, Davis has never been able to stay on any coach‘s good side and their coaching staff alienates players with better temperaments. Eric Gordon will develop and I believe the Clippers will have a great insight-outside punch for the future. However, this team is a combination of two types of players: players whose egos are bigger than their talent amd players whose potential is bigger than the current abilities.
12. Sacramento Kings- Geoff Petrie is a great GM and the slow rebuilding process begins in earnest in Sacramento. While I think Tyreke Evans will develop into a top caliber player, I’m unsure if he’ll ever be a pure PG. Spencer Hawes remains overrated, and not a viable answer at center. I think next year this team will be in the playoff hunt. This season, however, I think they’ll still be terrible.
13. Golden State Warriors- Every year I want to see more Nellie ball, the problem is that Don Nelson’s management style is so self-destructive that his basketball philosophy is punished as a result. While Jamaal Crawford wasn’t a top tier player, he’s better than what they got in return for him. The team is loaded with petite guards. 6’3’’ Acie Law, 5’11 Speedy Claxton, 6’3’’ Monta Ellis, and 6’3 Stephen Curry. The team is also still punished by oversized contracts to Corey Magette and Stephen Jackson so I wouldn‘t expect much change this season. On the plus side, Anthony Morrow and Anthony Randolph are both developing into solid players. If this team can get some salary cap relief, I think they could form the nucleus of a solid team. However, given how devalued its talent is and how odorous the contracts it has on its book, I find it highly unlikely they’ll be any progress in the foreseeable future.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves- While I actually really like their coaching staff, I just think the talent is not there. The front court has a glut of over skilled, but undersized Pfs- Love, Songalia, Gomes. Al Jefferson also would fit better at the PF slot than guarding other Centers, which will be even more apparent as he returns from injury. The addition of Ramon Session is nice, but given how electrifying Johnny Flynn played during the preseason, I don’t really understand the move. The team doesn’t need to win now, why invest the money in Session when Flynn (or Rubio) is your long-term answer at PG? Losing Mike Miller and Randy Foye for a band of misfits from the Wizards and a wasted 5th round pick (at least for this year) is idiomatic of the Timberwolves this whole off-season.
15. Memphis Grizzlies- If you’re wondering why Allen Iverson is hesitant to sign here despite a lack of other offers, the overall talent of this team, combine with the vast inferiority of its management is most likely the reason. Even with Iverson, I’m not sure I move them up.

Brett Favre is a Rorschach Test for Sportswriters

2009-08-26T12:04:00.000-07:00

As the Brett Favre mania dies down, at least until the next preseason game, it’s interesting to look at the variety of perspectives that have emerged as a result of Brett Favre’s actions. Here are the top 4 perspectives as I see them:

1. “What about the locker room?” Many of these writers were former role-players. They wonder why Brett Favre gets the star treatment and assume the locker room will resent them as much as they did. They could be write. Several articles have already been written about many of the Viking’s player favor Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.

2. “Who cares”- These are the cynics who write articles about they hate writing articles about Favre. I’m not actually sure who is holding their fingers to the keyboard, but they miserly point out that Favre was a mediocre qb in his final playoff game for the Packers and struggled in the 2nd half of the season with the Jets. He’s an upgrade over the existing qbs on the roster, but he’s probably the 3rd best qb in his division, behind a rising Jay Culter and Aaron Rodgers.

3. “Let him play” fan boy- These writers tend to focus on the stellar career that Brett Favre has had. He’s a gun-slinger, still a kid at heart. These people romanticize the career of Favre and ignore his skill decline, focusing on the iconic, rather than the reality.

4. “How dare he? A lot of older players who didn’t play during the area of free agents fall into this category. How could he do this to the Packers? How could he play for their rival the Vikings? These writers romanticize the rivalry between teams and its impact on players.

All of these positions have some merit. It’s just interesting that a writer’s take can be predicted more by their personal beliefs than by any factual claims about Favre.

Eastern Conference Rankings

2009-07-30T12:57:00.000-07:00

With some of the major free agents signed and the draft completed, here’s how I see think in the Eastern Conference.

1. Orlando Magic
2. Washington Wizards
3. Boston Celtics
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Miami Heat
10 Charlotte Bobcats
11. Indiana Pacers
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Milwaukee Bucks
15. New Jersey Nets

1. Orlando Magic- While some are dwelling on the departure of Hedo Turkoglu and Coutney Lee, the Magic have had a stellar off-season. They added Vince Carter. Jameer Nelson will be healthy. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes provide additional depth from the bench. Lastly, Dwight Howard has improved every season, becoming a more complete player. The norm in the NBA is the team with the best big man wins the championship, with Michael Jordan being the aberration rather than the rule. This is Dwight Howard’s year to be the bets big man in the NBA, and the year for the Magic to remain atop the Eastern Conference during the regular season.

2. Washington Wizards. Yes, scream “homer” at me. The Wizards added two solid starter, Mike Miller and Randy Foye. The team is one of the deepest in the NBA. Gilbert Arenas appears healthy, as does Brendan Haywood, who is in a contract year. The Wizards also will benefit form the development of JaVale McGee, whose progress was noted by TEAM USA basketball. Lastly, I think Flip Saunders remains a vastly underrated coach who is exactly what this squad needs. The Wizards won’t scare anybody on defense, but they won’t be a complete sieve, and on offense, they’ll be like the Phoenix Suns before Steve Kerr killed the fun.

3. Boston Celtics- This is a team that is ripe for a disappointing season and possible implosion. Kevin Garnett is coming back from surgery. Rajon Rondo, who kept the Celtics alive in the playoffs, was hammered in the media by the GM Danny Ainge. Adding gasoline to the team chemistry fire, the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace. The biggest problem for the Celtics is that nobody has discovered the fountain of youth.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers- While I think the Celtics made questionable moves, I think the Cavaliers really stunk up the joint this off-season. I have already written about how Shaq is a terrible defender. (Ask Mike Bibby’s agent how good Shaq’s pick and roll defense is. He’ll answer you from the swimming pool of money he earned). They overpaid for Anderson Varejao. Next season, the Cavaliers will have over half of the team’s salaries to Varejao, Shaq, and Z. They added Anthony Parker, but their perimeter depth is still highly questionable.

5. Toronto Raptors- The Raptors had three big additions this off-season. First, Hedo Turkoglu, who they overpaid dramatically, but will provide some leadership on offense and will make a great tantem with Bosh on pick and rolls. Second, Jared Jack was added, who gives a great second ball hander to spell Jose Calederon. Third, they drafted Demarr DeRozen, a prospect with amazing potential. With these additional players, I believe the Raptors will return to upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

6. Chicago Bulls- They may make a move to add Boozer or David Lee, which might change things a bit, but I like this Bulls team currently. Derrick Rose is entering his 2nd season after a monstrous rookie campaign. Luol Deng will be healthy again. Kirk Hinrch provides stability at a guard off the bench.

7. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks remain a mystery to me. Enough talent to be a serious contender, but that talent never seem to manifest itself. With the improvements to the Wizards and Magic, the Hawks record will decline a bit from the intense divisional play.

8. Detroit Pistons- The “new look” Pistons should be a lot of fun to watch, however, there roster is a bit of a mess. Both of their draft picks are tweeners forwards- not enough bulk to play the 4, not enough perimeter skills to play the 3. Their top two players, Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton, play the same position and serve the same function. While I’ll enjoy watching this Piston team a lot more than past Piston teams, I don’t think they’ll have the same success.

9. Miami Heat- Miami has done nothing this off-season while the other teams in the league have improved. Dwayne Wade is unhappy. Jermaine O’Neal can’t stay healthy. When O’Neal is out, Miami lacks a solid no. 2 scoring option. Last season, they overachieved. I think 9th is a more reasonable position given all the improvements in other teams.

10 Charlotte Bobcats- They were the no. 10 seat last year, ending the season 3-7. They should see some improvement from another year under Larry Brown, but the talent is still lacking. Tyson Chandler is a nice addition but not really an upgrade over Emeka Okafur. This is the same team that finished 10th last season and they have not done anything to keep up with any of the top tier teams.

11. Indiana Pacers- Danny Granger and a bunch of role players. The Pacers are full of players who do their jobs and just their job. There’s not a lot of upside to Roy Hibbert, Josh McRoberts, Travis Diener, or Tyler Hansbrough. This team also has three players from Duke, so I’m surprised as a Maryland alum, I can’t find a reason to put them lower.

12. Philadelphia 76ers- Eddie Jordan is an excellent coach for a rebuilding program. However, the loss of Andre Miller will be felt, since Jru Holiday is not ready to run the point and Louis Williams is a better fit at SG. I can’t see them making any major moves to fix this problem, because several of their players have really odorous contracts. Dalembert has two years and roughly 23 million left on his contract. Elton Brand has roughly four years and 64 million left on his deal.

13. New York Knicks- The Knicks are committed to clearing the mess off their balance sheet. Larry Hughes, Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, Darko Millic, and Chris Duhon, all have expiring contracts. The Knicks face a tricky situation with David Lee and Nate Robinson as restricted free agents. I don’t understand neglecting David Lee, who has played his heart out on losing teams. I would not be surprised to see another team make an aggressive move to land him. Nevertheless, this team isn’t assembled to win basketball games, but to fix a balance sheet. While I love Mike D’Antonni’s system, I don’t see this team reaching the playoffs in the East.

14. Milwaukee Bucks- I love Brandon Jennings. Not simply because he has a great last name, but because he had good summer league performance and seems to have that aggressive swagger that the Bucks never have. However, they let Charlie Villeneauva and Richard Jefferson go this off-season. They may even lose Ramon Sessions too. That’s just too much talent lost.

15. New Jersey Nets- The owner is dumping salary to sell the team. I think they’re getting a good young core, but Courtney Lee is not Vince Carter. This actually could be a blessing in disguise for the Nets. Adding Derrick Favors, projected to be the no. 2 pick overall by Draftexpress.com, would complete an amazing young core. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez is a solid young line-up to develop. Besides dumping their best players, the Nets have also lost his assistant coaches as part of their salary purge. Less coaches plus less experienced players is a recipe for disaster.

Steve Nash's Decision Closes the Door on a Championship Ring

2009-07-21T10:22:00.000-07:00

A lot of athletes say the most important thing is to win a championship. Sometimes this is true. Great players like Karl Malone and Gary Payton gave up more lucrative offers to join the Lakers in a quest to win a ring. However, most athletes approach their career the way most people approach a job. They look for the most lucrative opportunity and take it.

Steve Nash has now passed up his best opportunity to win a championship ring by signing an extension with the Suns. Espn is reporting that Nash has agreed to a 2 year extension for 22 million. When he finishes his extension, he’ll be 39. At 39, he most likely won’t be able to win a championship as anything under than a role player. Also, as a 39 year old pg, he’ll be a huge defensive liability. Nash is already regarded as a poor defender. As his speed declines, it’ll be even worse. Nash won’t be able to guard Deron Williams or Chris Paul in their prime, and will struggle with upcoming pgs such as Johnny Flynn, Russell Westbrook, or Jerryd Bayless. Nash may get lucky and join the right team and end up with a championship ring as a role player, but it’s tricky. For every player who is lucky enough to find a championship team, there are two more players who never manage to hook-up with the right situation.

Therefore, Steve Nash will have two more seasons in Phoenix to try to win a championship as the focal point. However, the Suns currently have significantly less talent than the Spurs or Lakers. If somehow they were able to get passed them, they have less talent than Cavaliers, Celtics, Wizards or Magic . The Suns don’t have the cap room either this season, where they have 64 million committed or next season where they have 59 million committed to be a significant player in the free agent market. Additionally, their owner has routinely sold picks and moved players to cut costs, so even if they had space, it’s not clear if they’d spend it. This pattern, especially in light of the Shaq trade, suggest this is not an organization that will win at any cost. Since Nash can’t expect any major help in free agency, his only hope is the current players will develop. However, there’s not that much young talent on the Suns. Based on summer league play, Earl Clark looks like a sold role-player in the future. Robin Lopez seems like an acceptable, but not exceptional option at center. The other younger players, Alando Tucker, Jaredly Dudley, and Channing Frye, all seem like average role-players. The Suns, barring an infusion of top tier draft choice, lack a young core that will develop into a championship team. Acquiring this young core is also an impossibility, because their roster, barring injury, is too good to finish in the bottom of the league. The Suns will most likely lose in the first or second round of the playoffs.

Steve Nash may not have been motivated solely by money in his decision. Phoenix has been very good to him, and he is beloved by the fans. After two MVP season, I could understand staying with the one who brought you. However, at the very least, he won’t win championship in the next two years, and likely, he will never win one. If Nash had chosen not to extend his contract, he could have put some pressure on ownership to improve the team. Now, that Nash is back, the pressure is off and an above average team is the result.

The Future of the Wizards is JaVale McGee, and It’s a Bright Future

2009-07-20T14:17:00.000-07:00

The Wizards have been dependent upon front court players to develop in order for them to transition to the next level in competitive play. By and large, the young players have disappointed. From Kwame Brown to Ethan Thomas, the Wizards have struggled to find a strong back-to-the-basket player. JaVale McGee is the latest prospect. Right now, his size and athleticism are at a premiere level. There are very few 7-foot players who can move with such quickness and grace. However, McGee needs to add strength and defensive awareness. Additionally, he needs to develop a few reliable post moves to compliment his arsenal of dunks. However, it seems like he’s got a chance to do so. His mother is a former WNBA player. Unlike a lot of players, he has a great understanding of the value of off-season conditioning. This season, I think McGee will develop into a regular contributor off-the-bench. Next season, he’ll be a starter. Three seasons from now, I think he’ll have a chance to be a top flight center.

Goodbye Kevin McHale

2009-07-01T18:58:00.000-07:00

Kevin McHale finally left the Minnesota Timberwolves. To be clear, Kevin McHale makes Isaiah Thomas look like a genius. As reported by ESPN:
McHale was haunted by several bad contracts given to the likes of Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Mike James; draft-day blunders like Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants and the trade of Brandon Roy for Foye; and an illegal under-the-table deal with Joe Smith that ultimately cost the team three first-round draft picks.
Many of those picks would have gotten an average GM fired. The one that’s always bothered me the most was the illegal deal with Joe Smith. I think it’s one of the reasons Kevin Garnett was never able to win a championship in Minnesota. The Timberwolves would have had the 17th pick in 2001, 23rd pick in 2002, and 29th in 2004. Here’s a few people they could have taken:

Year Available Players
2001 Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas
2002 Nenad Kristic, Roger Mason, and Carlos Boozer,
2004 Anderson Varejao and Chris Duhon

Now, I don’t assume that McHale would have necessarily found any of these players, and 2004 was a weak year in terms of late draft talent. But if any of these players were chosen, Kevin Garnett’s championship ambitions may have come to fruition while he was still in Minnesota. Imagine, however, if McHale had been lucky, and we’d have seen a Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Duhon on a team with Kevin Garnett.
This should also be a lesson to the Suns who can’t sell draft picks fast enough. While there may be a short-term benefit to minimize cap space by eliminating draft picks, they seriously diminish a team’s ability to win a championship in the long-term.

A few thoughts on Draft Night

2009-07-01T18:35:00.000-07:00

-I am a Brandon Jennings fan. Not because of his game, since I have not seen much of it, but because he came to Madison Square Garden after he was drafted because he wanted to shake the Commissioner’s hand and have that photo. I understand why he was pulled. Nobody likes being the guy sitting in the room with everybody talking about your decline. It’s embarrassing to the player and agent. Most experts were expecting this to happen to Brandon Jennings. Brandon Jennings, however, came back when he was picked, which shows me that he didn’t want to be robbed of the draft experience. I like somebody who savors important moments in their lives.

-I’m not sure how good this draft class is. Last year’s draft was thought to be terrible, but turned out to be pretty good. Derrick Rose was amazing. Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, and Russell Westbrook also showed future all-star potential. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and JaVale McGee all look like long-term front court starters with the potential to be borderline all-stars. Last year, however, nobody thought any of this was true. In contrast, the 2007 draft has turned out worse than expected. Greg Oden looks like a bust. Mike Conley, Jr., Yi Jianlian, and Acie Law have been giant disappointments. I think the one major difference between this draft, 2007’s, and last year’s is that last year players ended up in places where their playtime and roles were well-tailored to where they were drafted.

-I’m not a huge fan of drafting two players in the top 10 because of salary issues. Assuming they both work out, you still have issues resigning them. The best example of this is Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. It will probably happen be easier with Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, since Green hasn’t developed into a top tier talent. Minnesota had this problem this year. They put themselves in an awful position with the 5th and 6th pick, but there’s no guarantee that Ricky Rubio will be willing to play for them, and the fact that he’ll have to fit with another top tier PG is a disincentive.

-The best teams in the NBA usually have the best GMs. The Spurs, for instance, added Richard Jefferson and picked up DeJuan Blair. The Magic added Vince Carter. Both GMs earned their pay. Houston also bought several 2nd picks who could turn out to be solid reserves: Chase Bundinger, Jermaine Taylor, and Sergio Lull.

NBA trade rumors and suggestions have clear biases

2009-06-25T20:05:00.000-07:00

Bad teams tend to be afterthoughts in trade rumors. NBA reporters tend to have an overwhelmingly pro-winning team bias. Last season, and now repeated on Draft Express, is the rumor that the Wizards are going to trade Antawn Jameson to the Cavaliers. Ignoring the on-the-court implication of this deal, Ernie Grunfeld would never make this move. Wizards fans are still smarting over the first Cavaliers-Wizards series, where Lebron James’s uncalled traveling and distracting Gilbert at the free throw line are still wounds that have not healed. The last thing any Wizards fan wants is for Lebron “King” James to be coroneted via a trade for one of our top players. Ernie Grunfeld would lose all credibility with the Wizards fan base, which would make him vulnerable in the event the team struggles. These rumors don’t make any sense.
The truth is that NBA trade rumors tend to involve the lesser team as an afterthought. It can be seen in the trade scenarios between winning and losing teams, and between big market and small market teams. Despite the Knicks not being anywhere close to a championship team with Lebron, everybody writes about him ending up there. Even when the Raptors were playing well, NBA reporters were writing about Chris Bosh’s ultimate destination.
The major point is that when you read trade rumors, look at it from the perspective of the worst team in the trade first. Determine if it makes sense from that perspective, before you waste a lot of time pulling your hair out about it. Unless, of course, it involves the Clippers. Then just order a hair transplant in advance.

Shaq to the Cavs?

2009-06-20T10:18:00.000-07:00

Trade rumors are always fun. With just a few days till the NBA draft, the rumors tend to fly even faster. However, there is one trade rumor I can’t believe would able to be a reality: Shaq going to Cleveland. The trade doesn’t make sense for either the Suns or the Cavaliers.

The trade proposal as reported is Shaqiulle O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavolvic.

First, Shaq would be a terrible fit for the Cavaliers. Can you imagine a Shaq-Z front-line? At first, it sounds pretty good, two giants patrolling the lane. Then you picture them trying to guard the pick-and-roll. Mike Bibby can thank Shaq’s pick-and-roll coverage for nearly doubling his salary. How would the Shaq-Z front court handle Rashard Lewis? Neither of them have the speed to cover him on the perimeter. Skilled Pfs like Rashard Lewis, Kevin Garnett, and Antawn Jameson would run rampant over a Shaq-Z frontline. Teams would run on the Cavaliers constantly – their transition defense would be a complete joke.

Alternatively, the Cavaliers could bench either Z or O’Neal, but that’s incredibly wasteful in Z’s case, and would create a locker room cancer in O’Neal’s case. Defensively, the Cavaliers wouldn’t suffer as much with only one of them on the court at the time. However, there’s no guarantee that they would have a viable alternative at PF. A Shaq trade would almost certainly result in Anderson Varajeo opting out. He’s most likely get a decrease in minutes, and in a contract year, it would hurt his value. Additionally, he’s not thrilled playing in Cleveland, given his contract dispute.

Additionally, Shaq’s presence would have an adverse effect on the best asset the Cavaliers have: Lebron James. First, Shaq’s presence in low post would clog the lanes. Rather than surrounding Lebron with low-post players who could play away from the basket, as the Bulls did with Jordan, the Cavaliers would be doubling the crowd in their lane. Beyond that, however, there is a serious issue of whether Shaq and Lebron would get along. I have no doubt that at first Shaq would hug Lebron with the his bear arms, and declare that he was bringing a championship to Cleveland. However, after the initial honeymoon, when the rough spots happen who would bear the blame? The press would really have three options: Shaq, Lebron, or the supporting cast. After the Cavs last defeat in the playoffs, everybody else took the blame, not Lebron. Although Lebron’s tendency to over-dribble did hurt the Cavaliers, his stellar play deserved the credit for the wins and his teammates deserved the ire for the Cavalier’s defeats. However, if the media scrutiny fell on Shaq – if the Cavaliers struggled – the Big Aristotle would not hesitate to place it back on Lebron. It’d be interesting to see how Lebron responds to being criticized by his teammate. He’s been the King of the Cavs, and anybody who might be a problem for him has been traded – Ricky Davis and Larry Hughes.

It’s also a terrible trade for the Phoenix Suns. Ben Wallace doesn’t add anything to the Suns’ team, because for every points he takes away on defense, he gives up two points on offense. The assumption is that he’ll accept a buy-out because he’s expressed an interest in retiring. Even if Ben Wallace accepts a buy-out, he’ll still count for $14 million against the salary cap, which means he’s almost as prohibitive as O’Neal. Sasha Pavolvic is only guaranteed for $1.5 million next year. Shaq makes $20 million, and if Sasha and Wallace are both cut, they’ll save $5.5 million for next year.